Risk Assessment Of Agriculture Drought In Xingtai

Agricultural drought vulnerability, resilience, risk and adaptation studies constitute theframework of the drought research, in which drought risk of great significance on regionalagricultural drought management and response is significant. Selecting Xingtai City, HebeiProvince, located in the North China Plain as a study area as a basic research area, its naturaland geographical environment, agro-ecological environment and agro-ecological zonesrepresent the northern China landform types and the major types of agricultural production,and In a variety of natural disasters, agricultural drought haves the greatest impact. Assessingthe risk of agricultural drought, is of great significance for North China drought riskprevention and response and the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems.According to yearbook data, meteorological site data, census data and image data, weused the mathematical models combined with GIS to make a risk analysis in April and Maythat was a key period to the Winter wheat to these17counties located in Xingtai in the yearof2003，2006and2009. Then we had classified the Analysis results and divided the level ofrisk.Basing on the historical disaster data of every county in Xingtai having a shorter timeseries from2000to2007, we used the information diffusion method to do Risk probabilitycalculations and Come to the regional risk value.Both methods the results of comparativeanalysis to obtain the distribution of the risk level of Xing tai. The results showed that:(1) The agricultural drought risk assessment, first of all be familiar with the formationmechanism of the drought, and then aggregated impact factors play a key role, and actuallymay be more comprehensive consideration of these factors to analyze the drought conditions,typical indicators selected, and then based on the study area, the actual situation and dataavailability, construction of evaluation system.(2) In the comprehensive evaluation method, the disasters-causing factors evaluationselects drought composite Index as the division of risk standard. Xingtai City, only eightmeteorological stations, in order to make up for the rest of the missing data, combine theprecipitation and temperature data of Xinji Zanhuang, Zhaoxian, Gaoyi in the north andJizhou in the east and Qiuxian,Jize in the south with Xingtai existing data to makeinterpolation calculation. And then we can get the drought data of all regions. Using GIS to make drought composite Index visualization, can we obtain the level of drought. of all regions.The soil relative humidity indicators which can react the soil moisture, the elevation of theterrain, slope indicators, the texture index of soil and arable land change indicators affected byhuman activities,all of these indecators are selected in the evaluation system of disasterformative environment sensitivity. And then based on the expert scoring method,we cancalculate each individual factor scores, and separate into classes, and then use the algebraicoperation of the map function of GIS to stack all factors to study areas. The maturevulnerability assessment model is applied for the hazard-affected bodies. The number ofweather monitoring stations, the proportion of the total number of scientific and technicalpersonnel, effective irrigation rate, the per capita net income of farmers, agriculture spendingaccounted for the proportion of financial expenditure, the five typical indicators which can beused to reflect the disaster monitoring, prevention, rescue, recovery and reconstruction as wellas government support are selected to evaluate the disaster prevention and mitigationcapabilities. Due to the less of the number of indicators variability index should be used todetermine variability index to ensure the accuracy of the results.(3) The risk of information diffusion method results show that the: Each counties ofXingtai disaster index between10%to30%, having prevalence of high risk probability, andrisk probability of disaster index over40%is Xingtai County, Lincheng neiqiuGuanzong,Pingxiang, Shahe. The worst affected Guanzong and Heping, still have thepossibility of risk at70%.The risk of Ningjin, Nanhe, Longyao and Renxian have a littlechance at more than30%of the affected index and the value risk is very low.(4) Comparative analysis of the comprehensive evaluation and information diffusionmethod to get the results of drought risk in Xingtai. Xingtai, drought risk presents thephenomenon of central low on both sides is slightly higher in the middle of Baixiang NingjinLongyao, a county, the South and the formation of a low-risk zone, the southeast corner ofQinghe, Pro West is also a low-risk areas. Part of the the Lincheng within the mound, XingtaiCounty, Shahe county eastern plains and Xinhe, Julu, Pingxiang, the palace for the middlerisk areas; Guanzong Granville County and Lincheng, Neiqiu, Xingtai, Shahe, four countiesin central and western regions for high-risk areas.(5) The two evaluation methods for evaluating the risk results are broadly consistent，but their own characteristics in terms of the specific application are different. Following thedisaster system theory, the comprehensive evaluation method with its systematic analysisconsiders the combined effects of the different subsystems, breaks the artificial administrativeboundaries, reflects the inherent continuous and transitional characteristics of the agriculturalcomplex. As a risk area classification method is more reasonable. If information diffusionmethod is used to study the drought risk, Just need some historical disaster data, we can drawregional administrative unit risk probability.So this method is simple but helpful to the localdrought risk prediction and management, as well as the farmers involved in agriculturalinsurance.(6) For different risk areas, from the sensitivity, vulnerability and disaster prevention andmitigation of competency-based approach to analyze the risk exists, and proposed a simplesuggestion.