Pest Risk Analysis In China And The Economic Impacts Assessment Of The Trade Measures For Sirex Noctilio

Sirex noctilio Fabricius is a siricid wood wasp native to Eurasia and northern Africa. Sirex noctilio has a wide host range in Pinus, including P. radiata, P. taeda, P. ponderosa, P. muricata, P. pinaster, P.elliottii, P. caribaea, P. patula and P. sylvestris. Pinus radiata, P. taeda and P. patula are particularly susceptible. In recent years, China's major trading ports often intercepted Sirex noctilio which is native to Siberia and Mongolia on the northern border with China. It would seem that the likelihood of invasion by this species into China is very high. Thus, the article analyzed the pest risk of Sirex noctilio in China and carried out a series of prediction analysis to its invasion of China, The results are reported hereinafter.Use the CLIMEX 3.0 to predict the potential geographic distribution of Sirex noctilio in China. The result showed that Sirex noctilio could colonise areas from Yunnan Province in south-central China through to Heilongjiang Province in north-eastern China, with the majority of Provinces between these with high El values. Combining with the predict results and the collection of Sirex noctilio data, the risk analysis result showed that, Sirex noctilio is a high risk pest for China.Use the Global Forest Product Model (GFPM) to predict the economic impacts for Sirex noctilio related tade measures. We assumed two situations, One with no Sirex noctilio invasion, China would make three different policy responses for it's major industrial rounwood importing countries-Russia, New Zealand, Australia, the United States and Canada:(1) No policy response, with no Sirex noctilio invasion and trade liberalization. (2) Trade liberalization but with higher fumigation, quarantine and allow imports of debarked roundwood from Russia, New Zealand, Australia, U.S. and Canada only. (3) Adding a ban by China on industrial roundwood imports from Russia, New Zealand, Australia, the United States and Canada. The other assumption assume a successful Sirex noctilio invasion, in this case, China's major forest products trade countries-Korea, Japan, India, Canada and Germany also have to make three different policy responses:(â…°) No policy response, the five countries continue to free trade with China. (â…±) South Korea, Japan, India, Canada and Germany allowed imports of debarked, quarantined and fumigated industrial roundwood, other processed wood such as plywood, partile board, etc. must be quarantined and fumigated. (â…²) South Korea, Japan, India, Canada and Germany banned the import of China's industrial roundwood, sawn wood, plywood, particleboard and fiberboard.The analysis result showed that the invasion of Sirex noctilio would reduce China's forest stock by 3.75 billion m3 per year. China's producers'and consumer'gross revenue would decrease by $5.2 billion per year from 2006 to 2030. To prevent the invasion of Sirex noctilio, the best trade measure for China is request the industrial roundwood imported from Russia, New Zealand, Australia, the United States and Canada must be quarantined, fumigated and debarked.