The Regional Drought Disaster Risk Assessment In Henan Province

Drought disaster is one of the most important natural disasters in Henan province. The drougt disaster brings certain bad enfluences to both urban and rural residents and industrial and agricultural production, which severely restricts the normal operation of social economy in our province. Therefore, drought risk analysis and assessment is important to all levels of governments in drought information collection, prevention and measures to the drought, and transformation from emergency management to rick management.With analysis on the places and distribution of drought in Henan, the result shows that the frequency of drought in Henan is high in general, more or less once for each 2-3 years. From regional distribution, the northern part of the drought is higher than the southern part, and the western part is higher than the eastern past. From the seasonal respective, the drought in spring is most frequent, followed by summer drought. The overall distribution of drought is consistent with the distribution of drought. However, because of population distribution, industrial structure, and drought resistance, drought distribution and arid distribution show certain differences.From the perspective of regional drought, integrated four types of meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socio-drought, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied in regional drought levels in Henan, and then information diffusion method is used to calculate probability of drought of different levels in the cities of Henan. From the perspective of disaster risk analysis, regional drought risk assessment index system, such as drought risk, hazard exposition, regional integrated disaster reduction capability, is established, and the disaster vulnerability for the cities is assessed according to population and property.With parameter evaluation method, based on Risk Degree= Hazard Degree×Vulnerability, Henan regional drought risk evaluation model is created. Then in accordance with regional risk index, conduct drought risk planning and make the thematic map of drought disaster risk. Overall, the risk of drought in south and east of Henan is low value area, southwest, central places belongs to mid-value area, and north and westof Henan is high value area.Through the analysis on years of drought losses in Henan, the paper builds models of population, agriculture and fishery, and industrial loss, and calculates the loss rate over the years. Then construct log-linear regional drought risk loss evaluation model, using years of drought risk, hazard exposition, and regional integrated disaster reduction capability to calibrate model parameters. This model can predict drought damage degree under different risk levels in Zhengzhou City,2011 to 2015.