Vulnerability Assessment Of Agricultural Drought In Guizhou Province

Assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability is an important link in agricultural production systems and drought disaster,has been explored in many areas and implementation.In Guizhou Province,although there are some researches on the assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability,some theories and methods have not been formed for the assessment of drought vulnerability.In this paper,the zoning evaluation on construction of agricultural drought vulnerability AHP database model,the vulnerability of agricultural drought is divided into A(target layer)layer,the sensitivity factor and the restoring force of each factor is divided into B1 layer and B2 layer(criteria),the indexes can be divided into C layer,constructed of the total sort matrix of A(target layer)-C(index layer)and calculated of the vulnerability value through the consistency test.Using SPSS19.0software,K value clustering analysis is used to classify the vulnerability value into five grades,and the spatial distribution map based on the vulnerability value is made by using GIS software.Bijie City,Zunyi City,Liupanshui City in a number of years in the extremely fragile areas and the fragile area,mainly with the more area of dry land area,less of per capita water resources,less of surface water resources,large of relative humidity,low of farmers per capita net income,less of agricultural water pump and poor of water conservancy facilities,and is related to the karstlandscape,soil thinning,less of vegetation,poor of water retention capacity,fragile of ecological environment and small of drought resistance(natural geography factor).The drought intensity of agricultural in Qiandongnan,Tongren and Qiannan states is lower than that in other regions in the same period,mainly with the smaller proportion of dry land area in the region,more of the precipitation,smaller of the relative humidity,more of the surface water resources,more of per capita water resources,many of farmers per capita net income,many of agricultural water pump,strong of water conservancy facilities and drought resistance,and is related to the non karst landform,good of vegetation and soil,relatively strong of drought resistance.The proportion of the extremely fragile area and the proportion of the sub-fragile area is between 26.13% and 43.59%,and most of the year is 38.33%,which indicates that the agricultural drought in Guizhou is serious.The proportion of the fragile area of each grade is very different,showing "two more,the middle less" distribution.Based on the study of the entropy-quantitative evaluation model,the empirical results show that the eigenvalues of agricultural drought vulnerability in Guizhou are high.The vulnerability value is greater than0.5,but the fragility value of each year there is a certain floating,roughly floating in the vicinity of 0.647,indicating that the overall view of agriculture in Guizhou Province,a serious drought vulnerability.In this paper,a variable fuzzy-grey relational analysis model is constructed.The grey relation coefficient and correlation degree of the the average value of eigenvalues of the sample and 4 factors(percentage of the population in the province,the percentage of GDP in the province,the percentage of surface water resources in the province,and the percentage of Karst in the districts)are calculated.4 factors have certain influence on Guizhou agricultural drought vulnerability,but the influence is different,and the 4 factors in different regions may have different combinations,affect the vulnerability of agricultural drought is also different.Among them,the population,GDP,surface water resources accounted for the percentage of the province is the decisive factor,the impact of Karst is decreasing.