Study On The Application Of Three Type Quantitative Analysis Methods In The Prevention And Cure Of Diseases

With the change of environment and development of science and technology, many new diseases are appearing, which threaten to human life. Therefore, the work of disease prevention comes to a prominent position in medical treatment, and the application of mathematics will be undeniable and most significant to the quantitative analysis, revelation the diseases' trend, promotion of prevention and cure of diseases and help the government to scientific decision-making.In this thesis, Markov chain, grey theory, and Path analysis are employed for quantitative analysis in order to discover the information of all kinds of data relevant to prevention of cure of diseases more effectively, and enrich the methods of quantitative analysis for prevention of cure of diseases, and achieve some results which may be of referential value for the clinical researchers. Following are the studies which have been carried out in this research.1. Markov chain is used to study on the rate of deaths from epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in the city of Daqing from 1980 to 1999,and predict and estimate the tendency of death rate in the coming years, which will reveal the epidemic features of the disease and provide a scientific basis for prevention.2. The grey relational analysis, GM (1, 1) model, GM (1, N) model and the grey catastrophic predicting model are applied to the factors' data of vascular proliferation after corneal alkali burn, annual incidence of EHF in its monitored areas from 1984 to 1997, the rate of deaths from epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in the city of Daqing from 1980 to 1999 and the monthly data of parturition in a certain hospital from 1997 to 2001 respectively. These results indicate that application of the grey system theory for the quantitative analysis on prevention and cure of diseases will achieve some results which are profounder and more significative than those of the traditional analytical methods. The information may be of referential value for the clinical researchers.3. The method of path analysis is applied to study on the number of inpatients and times of hospitalization and relevant indexes in a certain hospital from 1998 to 2002. The direct factors and indirect factors which affect the number of inpatients and times of hospitalization are find, the path chart is got, and the working path form and the coefficient range of the path of every factor have been calculated, which offer a scientific basis for the interruption of the hospital administration at an early stage, and optimize the management and development of hospitals.