The Disease Spectrum Features Of Patients And Regularities Of Insidence Research During The High Temperature And Drought Periods Of Summer In Chongqing

Objective: To find the disease spectrum features during the high temperature and drought periods of summer in Chongqing, explore the weather factors'influence on some focus diseases and research the human'regularities of insidence in such weather condition. So as to rationally allocate and use of the health resources,draw up some targeted health strategies and measures for medical and health sector.Methods: The descriptive method was adopted to analyze the disease spectrum features of hospital patients,Internal Medicine Outpatients during the months of 7 to 8 in 2006 of Chongqing, and the features were compared with those of the same term in 2005 and 2007;Multiple stepwise regression method was used to analyse the relevance between the meteorological factors and some focus diseases; Time series analysis method was used to forecast change trend of the number of hospitalized cases during the high temperature and drought period; Data entry using Microsoft Excel 2003 software, data analysis using SAS 8.2 software. Results: Compared with the same term in 2005 and 2007, the weather of high temperature and drought in months of 7 to 8 in 2006 was much more serious; According to genealogical classification, the constituent ratio of disease of respiratory system was in the first place all the time and the constituent ratios of infection disease and parasitic disease in 2006 were higher than those in other two years; According to disease types ranked in order, it was showed that the constituent ratios of disease of acute upper respiratory infection,acute bronchitis,acute gastroenteritis,disease of appendix and enteric infection in 2006 were higher than those in other two years, it was showed that the acute upper respiratory infection,pneumonia and acute bronchitis were all in the first 4 place during the three years of the same periods of high temperature in both city hospitals and small town hospitals. Besides, the constituent ratios of acute upper respiratory infection,acute bronchitis,acute gastroenteritis,disease of stomach and duodenum and disease of appendix in 2006 were higher than those in the other two years in both this two types of hospital. The constituent ratios of heatstroke and cerebrovascular disease in 2006 were higher than the other two years in small town hospitals, while there was no the same result in the city hospitals; Infectious diseases have positive correlation with the ground minimum temperature, a 24-hour precipitation and sunshine hours, negative correlation with wind speed.In Multiple regression model, the partial regression coefficients of the Variables of sunshine are over 0.70 .Using Inpatients information during the period of high temperature and drought to build the ARIMA (0,1,1) model, Parameters MA1, 1 is significant non-zero(P<0.0001). The residual sequence is white noise sequence(QLB=2.54,P>0.05),Through comparing with the value of the AIC, SBC of several models fitted, the model of ARIMA(0,1,1),AIC=515.0224,SBC=519.2441 are the smallest.Conclusion: Respiratory disease is the high incidence of disease in Chongqing area of high temperature and drought during the summer. During the extreme high temperature and drought, the incidence of upper respiratory infection disease, infectious diseases are more serious than other diseases in such weather conditions. In urban and rural hospitals, during the high temperature, the acute upper respiratory infection, pneumonia, acute bronchitis are all the disease of high incidence. During the extreme high temperature and drought, the incidence of acute upper respiratory tract infection, acute bronchitis, acute gastroenteritis, appendiceal disease, stomach and duodenal diseases are more serious than other diseases in such weather conditions. Within the extremely high temperature phase, in small town hospitals, the increased rate of the cases of heatstroke and cerebrovascular disease was relatively more serious than that in the city hospitals. During the high temperature and drought, some meteorological factors impact on the infectious diseases; With ARIMA (0,1,1) models to predict the number of inpatients is better during the high temperature period.