Study On Simulation Of Beijing Urban Growth

The city is a complex giant system which is affected by the nature, the society, the economy and the other factors together. What's more, it is a complex dynamic system in space and time. The basic geography of traditional research methods and technical means based on static and linear theory have been unable to effectively interpret these complex phenomena. Therefore, we need to establish an effective space-time dynamic analysis of urban growth simulation theory and methods to solve this difficult problem.Urban growth simulation system is a technology that to simulate, predict and display the development of urban with support of the computer software and hardware. Its core is establishing a scientific model through applying the complex systems theory and using appropriate research methods. In the past several decades the model has made great progress. The cellular automaton model and multi-agent model which are based on dynamic model are the mainstream of current research. The multi-agent simulation of urban growth is the future development direction, but it needs high requirements about data and its technology is immature. So this study considers using cellular automata whose rules has been expended to simulate the growth of Beijing urban.Firstly this paper expatiates the history of Beijing urban growth process of evolution, and studies the driving force of growth of Beijing city and growth's hypostasis. Then it uses GIS technology and Logistic Regression Model to expand the cellular automaton model's rules and establishes Beijing urban growth simulation model. On the basis of this model it rebuilds the growth of Beijing city in 2005, and simulates the future of Beijing urban growth in stable growth, constrained growth and policy factors affecting scenarios in the next 15 years. Through comparing the fact and simulation in 2005 it indicates that the model has high precision. The results of urban growth show that the past pattern of Beijing urban growth has been unable to meet Beijing's future development. At the same time, the fast population expansion and rapid economic development lead to that Beijing urban can not use the constrained growth pattern. So building new city center in suburb to evacuate population and build new important means of transportation is the only way out for the future of Beijing urban growth.