Research On Measuring And Controlling The Merchant Bank Credit Risk

With the reformation in the economic system in China going on, the position and the function of bank are increasingly outstanding in the modern economic living. But a large quantity of the non-performing loans in bank has also become an important unsteady factor in the economy circulates in our country. At the same time, a few of financial crisis have taken place in 1990's, causing a worldwide deep concern towards the bank risk in world scope, therefore, "how to dissolve and prevent from the bank credit risk" has become one of the most outstanding missions of the economy reform and development in our country today.The Option Pricing Theory and the Asymmetric Information Theory (winning Nobel Economics Prize in 1997 and 2001 respectively) provide a new viewpoint for the people who are engaged in theories researching and practicing about the management of bank risk. This thesis comprehensively introduces these western modern risks analysis and management theories, the related model and technique method. Although some of these theories and methods can probably not be used in China at present, but with China joining the WTO, the banking will certainly be more involved in the financial globalization. And the bank's management will be finally connected with the world in the open competition. That introducing and analyzing the modern bank risk management theories and methods in this thesis are exactly based on the foreground research on the bank joining international competition.This thesis combines the modern risk management theories with the practices in our country. Bring out that measure and control the credit risk should be take preventing as the dominant factor. Puts forward an early-warning theory of bank risk for how to measure and control the bank risk. First we must perfect the enterprise's credit rating, particularly the influence of trade risk. Second, it is important that take an early warning research to bank self-risk. Bring up that therisk grade analysis is affiliated to the foundation of the tradition's index sign analyzes, so the credit risk that the bank will face with will be presented to the people more directly. It's benefit to the managers in bank to aim at the concrete control and dissolve of the risk on time.The research result in this thesis not only provides a scientific and practical method such as the early-warning of risk to guide the bank's governor in how to make a measure and control the credit risk in banking more efficiently, but also makes some related policy suggestions on the reformation of the bank system in China. Certainly, the theoretical and practical importance is shown by using the early-warning theory to measure and control the risk in bank under the actual circumstance in our country. It can compensate the research in this field in China to some extent.