Study On Earl-warning System Of Real Estate Market

The real estate now is playing more and more important role in Chinese economics with its development. There are so many problems in this area(field), e.g, the difference between supply and demand in some regions, disequilibrium of markets, overabundant companies, non-planned building, quick rise of price and investment and redundant houses. For the reasons above, it's necessary to set up the early-warning system of real estate, from the respect of government management, which favors the supervision activities of real estate companies, guarantees the benefits of consumers, collocates the national resources rationally, assists the government to make decision and eventually promotes the healthy development of real estate industry.This article is based on the theory of early-warning theory of macroeconomic and has further discussion about current methodologies of early-warning system of real estate. Combining the characteristics of the periodically fluctuation of real estate market, it researched to build the structure of early-warning model of real estate. It followed the work flow of real estate early-warning system and introduced how to found the modules of three sub-systems, such as the sub-system of data disposal and analysis, the sub-system of surpervising and early-warning, the sub-system of eliminating-warning. The sub-system of surpervising and early-warning will be the core of this article. What's more, the work flows and modules will be explained by easier ways, such as mumebers and figures. The sub-system of data disposal and analysis gives an introduction of data analysis and processing, builds the parameters system of real estate market early-warning system. During building the system of surpervising and early-warning, the article introduces the system of index early-warning and the system of statistics early-warning, and the work flow of forecasting and analyzing the screened early-warning guide-line of real estate market, and emulate the two models. The sub-system of eliminating-warning mentioned its modes and measures (also called the modes and measures of macroscopical management).The study on early-warning system of real estate market will be more intuitionistic to understand the work flow of real estate early-warning system, and be more referencevalue and real sense for the practical real estate early-warning.