Risk Research In China Securities Market

During past eleven years,China securities market has developed very faster and it plays a very important role in China economic reform and development of China socialist market economy. However,because of special economic background,China securities market is a very undeveloped market which is full of high risks. These risks have already become potential hazards to economic development. Therefore,it is a very important and urgent task to research and control these risks.In this thesis,the author expounds preliminarily the meaning,characters and types of securities market. Second,these risks of China securities market are evaluated completely. On the base of analyzing securities inner value,price of securities is compared with inner value by P/E and capital/dividend. Market efficiency is analyzed by EMH as well as the relation between price tendency of securities and that of macro-economy by the ratio of growth rate of stock's total value to that of nominal GDP. From above all,China securities market is full of high risks which are characteristic of systematic risks. Then,the author analyzed deeply four main factors. The first and typical factor is macro institutional risk which is attributed to transition of China economic institution and government hidden assurance. This risk mainly embody on irrational issue policies and structure of stock. The second factor is micro company risk which mainly embody on the low efficiency and benefit of management. The third factor is regulation risk which mainly embody on lots of illegal behaviors and lack of credits. This risk is attributed to indefinite regulative end and functions of regulators. The last factor is opening risk which is attributed to the impact of huge transnational hot money,overseas financial crisis and foreign securities company.The systematic risks of China securities market can be controlled and avoided by monitoring risk indexes and taking some measures. The first aspect includes risk indexes,risk evaluation and forecast model. The measures include institutional innovation,increasing efficiency of management and power of company,improving regulative mechanisms under the definite end and opening China securities market step by step.