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Studies Of Investment Decisions Based On The Theory Of Options And The Game Theory--The Investment Management Under Uncertainty

Posted on:2004-12-31Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H YuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360092496725Subject:Accounting
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The usual method used in investment projects evaluation is the method of net present value. But this method doesn't take all kinds of uncertainties into account, which are correlated with the investment projects. These uncertainties make up the opportunity value of investment projects. So the usual method used in investment analyses may result in a lower valuation of the investment projects than it should be, and the lack of investment. Under the circumstances of quick development of information technology and decrease of the processing cost of information, it is a revolutionary that using the theory of options and the game theory in investment analyses. The coming information economies age make us face more and more uncertainties. Those enterprises that are expert in making use of these uncertainties will succeed, and those enterprises that avoid uncertainties will be abandoned. The theory of options and the game theory both are the theories that can process uncertainties. So it is necessary to use the theory of options and the game theory in the evaluation of investment projects.This article, firstly, analyzes the uncertainties in the process of investment analyses, and reveals the nature, classification and characteristics of uncertainties. Secondly, the article raises the theory basis of solving the uncertainties-the theory of options and the game theory, and analyzes the possibility that using the theory of options and the game theory in the analyses of investment. Thirdly, the investment projects are classified according to new standard, and then the article raises the different method for different investment projects. All the methods used above form the method of options-game. Then the method of options-game is compared with the method of net present value. Lastly, the future using of the method of options-game is discussed, and methods are given for the problems in using the new investment analysis method in our country.
Keywords/Search Tags:the theory of options, the game theory, uncertainty
PDF Full Text Request
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