Forecast Method Of Supply And Requirement Of Key Person Without Enough Information Of HR

Today companies are facing more and more challenges in obtaining and keeping the advantages of competence in the rapid-changing environment. In fact, competition between the companies is subject to their own core competence, of which the key persons and their skills and technologies are just important components. Therefore, to obtain the competitive advantages, I think, it's important for companies to manage the key persons effectively, which is also a strategic problem. And it is the base of effective management to analyse and forecast the future needs and supplies of the key persons. But the following reasons are accounting for less HR information. The companies' management was let behind relatively, and managers ignored the HR management in the past and made it static state. Therefore they can't use the current predict technologies and models. If you use them reluctantly, the result should not meet your needs. So I tend to make research to it, which I hope it's useful to the companies in such environment.The text consists of four parts. In the first part, I put forward four hypotheses for research in advance and give the definition to the key person. In the second part, I emphasis on the analysis of the current forecasting methods and applicability of the models to forecast the person requirement and I bring forward a new method of "Zero Base" to forecast the person requirement. In the third past, I will emphatically analyse the current forecasting methods and applicability of the models to forecast the person supplies and I also will bring forward a new model "Three-Dimension Appraising model" of the key person. The last part is just introducing a relative case.There are two results pointed out specially in the text that are "Zero Base" method in requirement forecast and "Three-Dimension Appraisingmodel" in supplies forecast of the key persons. The forecasts of the quality and quantity of the key person will be based on uniform benchmark that is ideal requirement of the future in "Zero Base" method. The managers would combine ratio analysis with their own judgment and known how far between the actuality and the future in requirement of the key persons if they use this method. It is important information of making strategy and policy of HR. In Three-Dimension Appraising model, there are two classes in every dimensionality, so the key persons will be classified to eight areas. The companies should make different policy to persons of eight areas and will find the excellent candidates.