Analysis And Forecast Of Quantum Balance Between China's Fruit Supply And Demand

After more than 20 years rapid development, fruit industry has become an important brace in China's rural economy. Meanwhile, the fruit industry has been baffled by "hardly-sale" in successive years, and contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly acute. So it is the main goal of this article to analyze the situation and characteristics of the quantum balance of fruit supple and demand in China, to forecast the balance in the future, and then to give some constructive advices.The article firstly analyzes the history and current situation of China' s fruit production since 1978 in the way of total and structure. As for the quantum, the yield and area had grown rapidly but now come to a "surplus on the whole and adjustive in structure" stage because of underdeveloped producing means and low level of fruit's postharvest management and marketing. In terms of structure, the main-five-kind fruits account for most of the yield but those minor kinds come to play increasingly important roles. Meanwhile fruit production becomes more concentrated and its distribution in regions becomes more rationable, though the general status still lags behind developed countries'.Secondly the article reviews the fixed assets' affects to fruit production. With empirical analysis in "Trail model", the article figure out the up-price elasticity of supply is 0.067 and the down-price elasticity of supply is 0.0003. That means China's fruit supply is irreversible and highly risky. The factors that determine fruit supply are also analyzed in three aspects: cost-earnings, tech-progress and transaction efficiency. The rising labor price is the decisive factor to the ascending cost of fruits. Technological progress in fruit production has stepped up. Transaction and currency cost, especially in rural fruit markets, have been increased. On the base of those supply-factor analyses, the article propounds the fruit supply model in short and long terms respectively.In the demand-analysis part, the article firstly analyzes the characters of fruit consumption in China from 1978 in aspects of consume quantum, structure and difference between urban and rural. Secondly the article analyzes factors that affect demand for fruit, and emphasis on two factors: variations of demand preference and urbanization level. By contrast with other countries the article summarize two experiential rules: demand for fruit and urbanization level are highly correlative, and the demand for fruit will become relatively stable as the urbanization become stable.To analyze the affects of income to demands for fruit, the article estimates that theincome elasticity of demand is 0.45 in urban and 0.52 in rural instead. To analyze the affects of preference and urbanization, the article predicts that as the pace of China's urbanization steps up, the demand for fruit will increase rapidly and be in the range of 50 to 90 kilo-gram per-person on an average by contrast with China's neighbors. The article also analyzes the history and situation of fruits' export and procession in China, and work out that China's fruits have price advantage but lack for non-price competitive ability, and that fruit procession industry have lots of advantages and potential, though it just begin.Then the article retrospects balance of fruit in China from 1961. By making the rate of urbanization as the independent variable in the fruit demand model, the article have forecasted fruit demand in China from now to 2030 C.D. and drawn the conclusion that the situation of "surplus in quantum but contradictive in structure" will maintain in the long run. At last the writer sum up the article and give some advices for policies.