A Medium-Length Period Forecast For The National Economy Of Guangxi And Policy Simulation

By comprehensively applying knowledge of multi-subject such as applied economics, econometrics, forecast and policy-making, and the theories of economic growth, and combining the practical situation of Guangxi economy, this paper establishes a macro model (MPCM) for Guangxi economy, which takes the social demands as baseline and the system of national accounting (SNA) as the structural frame. On considering of the economic situation, under which the economy of our country will be continually located in the phase of powerful policy guidance in a long time, the capital construction investment and government budget expenditure are taken as two exogenous policy variables in the model. In that future time, development direction and speed of the economy will depend in every important national policies. In the paper, the above-mentioned model is applied for a policy simulation for each important economic variable of Guangxi economy, from this research the values of the related variables in 2002-2010 are forecasted, those of them are to provided a found and scientific basis to the policy-making departments to make macro-economy environments advantageously.In constructing MPCM model, the author makes a full prehension on the quantity relations of dependence and restriction between different financial variables so as to make the model larger and most precise. In the analyses on the economic environment, the author mainly uses two indicators, labor productivity and capital productivity, to explore the factor of scientific and technological progress. Meanwhile, the author applies the economic growth theories of Harrod-Domar and the neoclassical economics to explore the balance of medium-length period growth of Guangxi economy.