Research On Analysis And Forecast Of Cargoes Flows In Water Transportation In China

Water transportation is an important part of comprehensive transportation, and plays a prominent role in the development of the national economy. Water transportation includes ocean water transportation and inland water transportation. Ocean water transportation is the main carriage means of foreign trade goods in China. According to statistics, the main cargoes in water transportation are coal, mineral building material, petroleum, metal ores and nonmetal ores.The paper analyses the transportation flows of main five kinds of cargoes in coast and inland water systems. The distributing characteristic of sources influences the transportation flows of cargoes in deeply degree, so firstly, the paper introduces the sources distributing characteristic of coal, mineral building material, petroleum, metalores and nonmetal ores. Then analyses the flows of coal, petroleum and metal ores in coast and inland water transportation in details, and lays a stress on main ports along the Yangtze River to analyse and forecast OD flows of main ports.The forecast is quantitative analysis in the paper .The amounts of cargo flow are forecast by generation models of transportation demand and the directions distributing of cargo transportation are forecast by distribution models .The forecast methods which have already been used for amounts of cargo transportation are trend inference method, smooth method of index and grey system method; The forecast methods which have been used for cargo transportation distributions are Fratar method and Furness method. These methods are developed into programs by Matlab6.5 software .A series of forecast models are produced by running these programs when related history data of ports in the last decade are input .The most appropriate forecast models are chosen and defined by comparing the related test and the accuracy test.The research on analysis and forecast of cargoes flows in water transportation in China has the realistic significance. It can provide a reference for government departments as adjusting water traffic supply and establishing shipping policies, is also beneficial to shipping enterprises to make developing stratagems. On the other hand, the forecast results are also basis for building composite index of supply and demand of inland water transport capacity.