Empirical Study On Early-warning Of Corporate Financial Crisis With Application Of Multivariate Statistics For The China's Listed Company Of Household Electric Appliance Manufacturer

This thesis is focused on early-warning of corporate financial crisis in the listed household electric appliance manufacturers of China. First, financial indexes system is constructed on the basis of open-disclosed annual statements. Second, multivariate statistical analysis methods are used for statistics and analysis, such as cluster, discriminant and principle component analysis, and established multivariate models for the empirical study on early-warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software. Third, comprehensive analysis and assessment are accordingly made then. In addition, I summarized the problems in my study and gave some suggestions over how to establish financial crisis early-warning system for Chinese enterprises. This study and analysis may be regarded as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.The main contents of this thesis are as following:Preface, briefly introduce the background and role of the early-warning of corporate finanacial crisis, describes the importance and imminence of this study for the China's listed houselold electric appliance manufacturers.Chapter 1 defines financial crisis and early-warning of financial crisis and point out its importance.Chapter 2 indroduces the basic ideas and methods of the early-warning of corporate financial crisis, which is composed of two aspects-qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis includes univariate and multivariate models, my own ideas and methods in empirical study will be brought in as well.Chapter 3, make a practical ananlysis on samples.Chapter 4, establish the financial indexes system of early-warning of financial crisis, and give explaination on the calculation of some indexes.Chapter 5, by the empirical study of ready-made multivariate models (Z-scores model and F-scores model) based on the results of study, conclusion can be made that blindly applying the ready-made model is not practicable.Chapter 6, the main part of this thesis, apply multivariate statistical analysis methods, such as cluster, discriminant, and principle copmponent anlysis, and estanblishes multivariate models for the empirical study on early-warning of financial crisis by using of SPSS statistical software, and make the test and annlysis of the results of established models.Chapter 7, make a comprehensive annlysis and assessments of the early-warning models, and summarize the characteristics of my study in this thesis.Chapter 8, points out the problems and limits in China's early-warning analysis on financial crisis.Chapter 9, make some suggestions in establishing financial crisis early-warning system for Chinese enterprises.The last part is the conclusion of this thesis.