Research Of The Alertness-forecasting System Of The Commercial Bank's Risk

With the development of the financial liberty and integration, especially China acceding to WTO, Chinese commercial bank will be confronted with severe circumstance in the course of financial revolution, which will bring about the commercial bank's risk more and more. Of course, it is very necessary to research and grasp completely and systematically the type, characteristic, manifest and reason, and construct the alertness-forecasting system of the commercial bank's risk to control completely the risk in order to reduce the risk and avert the crisis.Firstly, the paper analyzes the type, characteristic, manifest and reason of the commercial bank's risk in its running. Secondly, based upon the further analysis of the traditional alertness-forecasting methods, put forward the methods used in the thesis combined by fuzzy mathematics theory and Back Propagation NN technique, and analyze the feasibility and advantages of the application of this method into the construction of commercial bank alertness-forecasting system. Thirdly, apply the method combined quantitative with qualitative analysis, as well as theoretic analysis with positive study to establish an easily operated index system of the commercial bank's risk and find a perfect alertness-forecasting method, furthermore, to establish an alertness-forecasting system in order to control and manage the commercial bank's risk. Finally, make a conclusion to this research.