Research On The Composition And Realization Mechanism Of Emerging Risk Alertness

Emerging risks have penetrated into all aspects of social life with an unprecedented diffusion trend,and may pose a severe test to the national governance system and governance capacity in accordance with the evolution of “risk-emergency(disaster)–crisis”.Emerging risks may drift outside the scope of regulation of existing risk management systems,or even if incorporated,management failures may occur due to the high uncertainty of emerging risks.Risk knowledge production is the basis of effective risk management.In the context of emerging risks,the knowledge production model based on risk assessment in the conventional risk management framework encounters obvious obstacles,which leads to the failure of emerging risk management.From the perspective of theoretical interpretation,emerging risk management faces the problem of highly incomplete information,and risk assessment lacks the information data based on“rationality-analysis” to produce failure problems.However,the logic of the relationship between making up for the failure of risk assessment and improving the failure of risk management has not been revealed.It is necessary to clarify the positioning of risk perception model in risk management,and then expand the path of improving the failure of emerging risk management with new ideas,rather than limited to the narrow path of making up for the failure of risk assessment.This paper focuses on a different risk perception model-“risk alertness”.By deconstructing the management value of risk perception model in the risk management framework,this paper sorts out a new way to improve the failure of emerging risk management with risk alertness model in the context of emerging risks.In order to respond to and dissect the research questions of this paper,the research analyzes and explores from the conceptual and theoretical levels.First of all,a bibliometric analysis and systematic review of related research on emerging risk governance and alertness at home and abroad.Secondly,the core concepts are defined in combination with the literature,including risk,emerging risk,alertness and risk alertness.Especially the concept history and concept comparison of the concept of risk alertness,which is the concept transfer.Through the detailed comparison of the two groups of concepts of “risk alertness-risk assessment-risk perception” and “risk alertness-opportunity alertness”,the connotation is determined.Then,it analyzes the theoretical dilemma of the traditional risk perception model in the context of emerging risks,and conducts a deterministic analysis and theoretical positioning analysis of the emerging risk alertness cognitive model.The research takes the risk perception model theory,social technology system theory,and policy agenda setting theory as the theoretical basis.Finally,the analysis framework of“theoretical positioning-panoramic portrait-implementation mechanism” is formed.Studies suggest that emerging risk alertness is different from risk assessment in cognitive model and theoretical positioning.Under the conventional risk management framework,risk assessment follows the scientific evidence-based path and is in a dominant position.Risk perception is at most complementary,and risk recognition is hidden in the background of risk management.The arrangement of risk perception in the conventional risk management framework is not enough to deal with the “thorny” problems of emerging risks.Emerging risk alertness is inclusive in cognitive mode.It not only attaches importance to the rational analysis path of comprehensive information scanning,but also includes the intuitive perceptual path of risk conception and interpretation.At the same time,it is highly sensitive to the value of risk,which reflects the flexibility of risk knowledge.But it does not mean that it can make up for the lack of knowledge of emerging risks.The value of emerging risk alertness in management is not to make up for the failure of emerging risk assessment,but to improve the management failure caused by assessment failure.In terms of theoretical orientation,emerging risk alertness is regarded as the basis of early risk warning,and the joint point of emerging risk governance moves forward from “emergency warning” to “early risk warning”.Make up for the failure of the conventional risk management model in dealing with emerging risks by moving forward.The research analyzes the panoramic portrait of emerging risk alertness.As a cognitive activity of risk,risk alertness reflects the dialectical relationship between cognitive subject and object,and the cognitive relationship,practical relationship and value relationship formed by the subject with cognitive ability to the cognitive object(that is the cognitive object entering the subject’s cognitive field).Panoramic portrait describes the alert object and alert content with object characteristics,as well as the internal alert elements with subject characteristics.Therefore,a panoramic portrait analysis of emerging risk alert is carried out from the dialectical relationship between subject and object of cognitive activities.This opens the “black box” of emerging risk alertness as a cognitive activity:Firstly,in the aspect of object identification,the research believes that the object of risk alertness is the emerging risk that is “constructed” in the social technology system.According to the change of its construction “maturity”,it is presented as a dynamic “emergence-exposure-expansion” process,which is manifested as the hidden risk under the cognitive and social dimension,the scientific debate risk under the post-conventional science,and the social dispute risk under the social construction.Secondly,in terms of content characterization,the content characterization of emerging risk alertness emphasizes the issue of what to be alerted.The research believes that alertness content needs to follow the dynamic development and timely conversion of alertness objects,track the cue signs of hidden risk “weak signals”,conceive extreme scenarios of scientific debate risks in a hypothetical forward-looking manner,and keenly capture the public perception and social amplification signs of social dispute risks.Thirdly,in terms of factor deconstruction,the research first uses the grounded theory method to develop the emerging risk alertness elements based on the interview text data;then,according to the grounded method,the risk alertness factor is obtained and the risk alertness scale is designed.The questionnaire data is used to verify the emerging risk alertness construct dimension.The study found that the internal elements of emerging risk alertness can be divided into four aspects:scanning-attention,conception-interpretation,cautious judgment and value sensitivity.Among them,“scan-attention” is an alert factor about how to collect and select risk information;“Conception-interpretation” is an alert factor about how to form and rationalize risk knowledge;“Prudent judgment” is an alert factor about how to make forward-looking judgment on incomplete compound risk knowledge;The“value sensitivity” element is the element that reflects the subjective value position in risk alertness.The research deeply discusses the realization mechanism of emerging risk alertness.According to the research,emerging risk governance has strong public attributes.Over-reliance on the risk alertness of managers or experts is easy to fall into the dilemma of individual contingency and does not meet the governance attributes.It is necessary to realize emerging risk alertness in an institutionalized way.This study puts forward the “factor-relationship-operation” interpretation framework of the emerging risk alertness implementation mechanism,and believes that the risk alertness mechanism(at least)contains five sub-mechanisms,namely,the multi-subject composition mechanism,the information exchange mechanism,the negotiation judgment mechanism,the correction restriction mechanism,and the support guarantee mechanism.Each element forms a “operation-control-support”relationship structure.The mechanism realizes the functions of information gathering,knowledge processing and alert judgment in operation,and embodies the inherent requirements of emerging risk alert activities.The main innovations of the paper include:First,the analysis scope of the concept of alertness is expanded from“opportunity” alertness to “risk” alertness.Opportunity and risk are two aspects of uncertainty.The research deeply examines the internal homology and significant differences between opportunity alertness and risk alertness,analyzes the unique characteristics of risk alertness,and expands the connotation and application scope of alertness.The second is to propose an early risk warning based on risk alertness to make up for the failure of emergency warning based on risk assessment,it is a strategic innovation of emerging risk management.Third,from the perspective of the maturity of risk development to understand the emerging risk issues,with a new perspective of research.For risk alertness,“novelty” is not the fundamental feature of emerging risks.From the perspective of maturity of risk development,we can better understand the social construction process of risk and the object and content of risk alertness.The fourth is to propose a risk alert mechanism,which makes up for the defects of assessment “failure” in conventional risk management,transcends the defects of individual alert psychological mechanism,and enriches the practical direction of emerging risk governance.