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An Empirical Research On The Relationship Between Several Factors Of Stock Market And Economic Growth In China

Posted on:2005-09-30Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J G TianFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360122499161Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The stock market has developed for more than ten years and has large scale in China. In addition, the stock market has active effect on economic growth and stucture adjustment. Therefore it is very important to analyze the relationship between the stock market and economic growth .It can promote the growth of stock market and make corresponding suggestion. The paper expatiated on the present situation of research of the relationship between the stock market and economic growth, analyzed the reciprocity between the stock market and economic growth in theory, then analyzed the relationship between the stock market and economic growth empirically based on he present situation of China's stock market. This paper studied the relationship between stock cycle and economic cycle, analyzed fragility of stock market and it's negative effect on economy. In the end, this paper brought forward the policy suggestion about stock market growth.The paper includes five chapters:The first chapter is summary, expatiating on the present situation of research of the relationship between stock market and economic growth. Economists have two opposite points of view about this problem: some considerd there was pertinence between the stock market and economic growth, some the other way round. This paper points out that different means lead to different conclusion, also attribute to different stage on development of different country.The second chapter analyzes the relationship between the stock market and economic growth theoretically. Firstly, the paper analyzes that the economic growth promotes the formation and development of the stock market theoretically, points out the formation of the stock market relies on participant cost of financial market. Secondly, the paper cites the theory of Gavin in 1989, clarifies the approach that the stock market promotes to increase the economic by promoting total demand. On this basis, the paper analyzes four mechanisms further that the stock market promotes to increase the economic: reducing risk . increasing the efficiency of the capital collocation . strengthening the control of firm and accelerating the transform of savings to investment.The third chapter is the main body about the empirical analysis. Firstly, the paper clarifies the research methods and variables, then analyzes the mutual relationship between China's stock market and economic growth in five aspects deeply: (l)Srudies3the influence upon economics by stock index with monthly data from January of 1997 to December of 2003, then makes Granger test;(2)Analyzes the relationship between increasing rate of GDP and correlative variables of stock market with quarterly data, the sample zone is from the first quarter of 1995 to the last quarter of 2003 and from the first quarter of 1999 to the last quarter of 2003 .The regression results indicates the influence of stock market to economy enhances with the development of stock market.(3)Analyzes the relationship between saving rate and correlative variables of stock market with quarterly data, the sample zone is from the first quarter of 1995 to the last quarter of 2003 and from the first quarter of 1999 to the last quarter of 2003.The regression results indicate that the stock market has negative effect on saving rate.(4)Analyzes wealth effect of stock market with correlative data. The results indicate that wealth effect of stock market in China is feeble in early stage but become more and more great, it promotes to increase economic growth by promoting consumption. (S)Studies investment effect of China's stock market with quarterly increasing index and original index. It indicates that the investment effect really exists in china's stock market. Development of stock market promotes to increase fixed assets investment. In the end the paper analyzes the relationship between stock market cycle and economic cycle, draws a conclusion that the stock market cycle is about three years and four months in China by mathematical methods. The stock market cycle and economic cycle are simila...
Keywords/Search Tags:stock market, economic growth, empirical analysis, cointegration
PDF Full Text Request
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