Quantitative Links And Policy Choice Between GDP And Governmental Investment, Foreign Investment And Non-Governmental Investment

Investment, as one of the Three Wagons that pull GDP into increase, plays a very important role in the macro-economic life of a country. Investment is classified into governmental investment, foreign investment and non-governmental investment according to its subjects. This way of classification is rather significant to government in deciding macro-economic policies to increase GDP. Through empirical analyses of the scales of investment and economic growth of China and other major countries of the world, this thesis proves that enlarging investment is necessary in propelling economic growth. On that base this thesis utilizes the concerning data of China and adopts the method of statistic analysis to conduct: regressive analyses of GDP and the three types of investment with data from 1986 to 2002, rank-relevant analyses of the GDP growth rates and the growth rates of the three types of investments with data from 1987 to 2002, rank-relevant analyses of GDP growth rates and the ratios the three types of investment occupy in the total amount of social investment with data from 1987 to 2002. Through the analyses the author of this thesis creatively proposes two concepts that are suitable for analyzing time series with amplified time span - "actual average rank at different phases" and "theoretical average rank at different phases", and offers their calculating method and validity-judging method. With the preceding quantitative analyses, this thesis also combines qualitative analyses to propose and prove the division of three economic phases of the period from 1986 to 2002. Then the thesis illustrates that except the growth rate of governmental investment, the growth rates of the rest two types of investment change in the same direction as GDP growth rate does, and that the growth rate of governmental investment should be prevented from being too high. Hence this thesis suggests that the increase of GDPcould be realized by enhancing the growth rates of foreign and non-governmental investments while maintaining the governmental investment at a moderate growth rate. Different growth rates of the three investments will certainly alter the ratios they occupy in the total amount of the social investment, but generally speaking their ratios are little relevant to GDP growth rate. So from the angle of the neo-theory of economic growth, policies and measures in different directions and of different strength could be exerted on the three investments respectively. Specifically, the policies and measures are mainly: to rearrange the governmental investment, reform fiscal policy and governmental investment system and, measure the growth of governmental investment; to fully improve the use of foreign investment by enhancing its scale and quality; to promote non-governmental investment to usher the economy into the orbit of spontaneously developing. Practicing those policies and measures finally aims at promoting GDP to increase in the best-optimized way as a whole.