The Monetary Model And The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate

From the point of the view of the Monetary Model, this thesis designs a Chinese characteristic model for the determinants of RMB exchange rate. And the paper estimates the exchange rate of RMB using regression analysis based on this model. The result proves that the Monetary Model can explain the long-term trend of RMB exchange rate.This paper consists of four parts. Chapter 1, Monetary Model. This part introduces history background ,major content, evaluation of Monetary Model and empirical research on Monetary Model in foreign countries. Chapter 2, Monetary Model and empirical research on RMB exchange rate. This part design a Chinese characteristic model for the determinants of RMB exchange rate, and estimates the exchange rate of RMB using regression analysis based on this model using annual data from 1980 to 2000.Chapter 3, analysis of the trend of RMB exchange rate. On the basis of the result, the paper analyses three factors that influence RMB exchange rate: money supply, GDP, interest rate. In the end the paper proposes five suggestions to keep RMB exchange rate stable. At last, the paper gives the conclusion of the whole study.