The Study Of The Predictive Method About The Freight Volume

With the development of modernization in china, economic structure is changing from traditional planned economy to market economy, modernized logistics already transited to practical handling moment from concept moment, so the prediction about the freight volume is very important for the strategy development of logistics enterprise. But the logistics enterprise lie underway moment, the statistic of historical data is not integral and scientific, so it is fairly important about how to improve the predictive precision about the freight volume.There are many predictive methods now, more than hundred. Besides classical predictive methods, there are many new methods, such as illegibility mathematic prediction, neural network prediction. Because the localization of the predictive method itself and the confine of the predictive person's knowledge, experience, the predictive result is not satisfied in many practical prediction. So choosing the appropriate predictive methods will assure predictive nicety. Especially the scarcity of historical data will bring tremendous difficult for using the predictive models which need large numbers of historical data. In the instance, it is very important that put forward a kind of efficient predictive method about the freight volume.The thesis is based the experience of one airport's 《the survey and prediction of the market about passengers and cargos》 . Firstly writer introduce the domestic and overseas status about the predictive methods of the freight volume, then illuminate the purpose and meaning about writing the thesis, afterward introduce the investigative content and method, then writer discourse upon the predictive character and problem about the freight volume, where after introduce some classical predictive methods, finally writer combine a practical example to bring forward a kind of efficient predictive method about the freight volume, and summarize the thesis.