About Uncertain Investment Decision-making Method

There are a lot of uncertain factors in project investment, which influence the value and its decision-making of the project. The paper tries to solve the uncertain problems in the project investment with dynamic viewpoint, and avoid decision faults to the outmost extent.The first, the author analysis and reviews the concerned theory, through building the AHP appraisal model of investment chance and relative appraisal index, the best investment chance could be chosen scientifically and objectively by systematic analysis, in order to avoid the blind investment and ensure the development of national economy and the interests of investors. The second, this paper discusses the validity of investment evaluation indexes of net present value (NPV) for project under the condition of uncertainty, and points out that the influences of risks on the decision of project must be considered in the course of uncertain investment decision-making. According to the statistical features of investment project, this paper points out the calculation ways of uncertain investment decision-making. The third, the author studies NPV, dynamic balance point and sensibility analysis in the uncertain situation and offers a case. The fourth, the author discusses the uncertain investment decision-making management.The study has a far-reaching meaning in upgrading the system of project investment decision-making, especially in making uncertain project investment decision and decreasing investment risk of single project to the institutions and other organizations.