Purchasing Risk Analysis Model & Management Tactics Research On Power Grid

At the selling side of an open electricity market, the vertical monopolization is broken. The power gird operator became the purchaser in this market. Therefore, it will face many kinds of uncertainty and risks. In this paper, the risk concept, the analysis approach and risk management are introduced. Then the paper surround the purchasing risks of the power grid brought by the real market price's frequently fluctuate, elaborating four kinds of market risks faced by the power grid ,i.e., the first is the load forecast error risk, the second is the trade modes risk, the third is commitment rule risk and the last is the transmission congestion risk. According to the four kinds of risks, the model is established, analysed in detail and the analytical solution is obtained. Furthermore, contraposing the all kinds of risk conditions, the risk management measure and approach are introduced, by using these approaches, the purchasing risks can be effectively reduced. At last, a simulation for the actual market date is carried out.