Theory & Method Of Combined Forecasting Of Electric Load And Analysis On Influencing Factor

Power load forecasting is the basis of planning and operation of electric power system. It is also an important part of electric power market performing. In the course of electric power marketing, the accuracy of power load forecasting is directly related to the interests of all parties. Currently, there are a lot of models for power load forecasting. Only one model cannot totally reflect the changing rules and information of power load. Combination model of load forecasting has been a new direction of developing research. This paper introduced the concept of load forecasting, the characteristics of load forecasting, and the new challenge from electric power market economy, as well as some recommendation to improve the load forecasting model. Based on the model analysis, this paper illustrated the factors of power load forecasting, and selected power load forecasting single models as analyzing tools,which are ordinary in power load forecasting research .This paper also employed Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) to select the propotion of some electric load forecasting models ,built combined forecasting model,and analyzed the relationship between the load forecasting and its factors by AHP.