The Application Of Combination Forecasting Model To R&D Funds In China

Great progress has been achieved in the combination forecasting researches ever since J.M.Bates and C.WJ.Granger initialized. The theory of combination forecasting and the skill of modeling are practicable in complex economic system with uncompleted information. Because scientific and technology system is of complexity and non-linearity, Firstly, this paper respectively make use of grey forecasting, index smoothness and multiple regression to construct models depending on historical data of R&D funds in China, as well as analyze and compare the advantages with the disadvantages of these models. Secondly, this paper propose the combination forecasting model of R&D funds in future by using standard variance to allocate the weights . Finally, this paper apply this kind of model to forecast R&D funds in China in following ten years. The result shows that we can take the model as an effective tool to predict future R&Dfunds in China.