| Real estate as a fundamental and dominant industry, gradually becomes the pillar industry of the national economy. By the end of 2002, real estate industry in our country always presents a good development state. But in nearly three years, some problems such as investment increasing in a overmuch speed , the idle rate of real-estate rising faster and the price climbing quickly are more and more coming forth , the risk in the real-estate come out with all these questions. So, we must forecast the risk exactly and find a scientific method to reduce the risk during the decision-making of real estate investment.In this paper, by theoretical and positive methods, on the basis of domestic and abroadreal-estate risk research, we try to find out all risks in the process of real-estate investmentthrough investigating its present station and the characteristics. At the same time, we alsodivide the risks into systematic and non-systematic and analysis their source and influence onyield in detail base on the thought of risk division in Modern Portfolios Theory (MPT) andCapital Assets Pricing Models (CAPM). On the research of all the decision methods especiallyon model of risk, we find the strongpoint and defects of all the methods and the cut-in point ofthe paper: contropose to the shortage of reflection reality difficultly in the method ofexpectation profit and loss that has been wildly used, we set up a real estate investment riskdecision model on the basis of this theory by using Bayes theory to revising the probabilityestimating on nature. The analysis on demonstration prove that the model of real estate Bayesrisk decision-making presented by this paper can increase the information with market researchand revise probability so as to increase the possibility for decision maker to make gooddecision and reduce the decision risk, In addition, by reviewing the indexes of informationvalue and cost of sample this model is also feasibility on the view of economy.
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