The Failure Probability Evaluation Of A Continental Pipeline And Software System Research

At present, a lot of served pipelines of our country have already aged. With the extension in service time and influence of the environment, product, the defect of the pipeline is worsenning constantly, which causes the failure probability of the pipeline rising, and influences the safety of the pipeline seriously. So, it is very important of carrying on the failure probability assessment of pipeline.The thesis considers synthetically random characteristics which contains pipeline load , mechanics performance , defect expandence speed and pipeline damage characteristic ,etc, and sets up failure probability model of six accident factors correlated with time. On one hand, these models reflect objective uncertainty of assessing parameters , on the other hand., These models can gain failure probability of pipeline which offers the theoretical foundation for describing the probability risk of the pipeline quantitatively.Using probability numerical analysis method and probability model put forward newly, this thesis provides the failure probability calculating method of the pipeline, evaluates failure probability of the pipeline, and developes the Failure Probability Evaluation System of the Pipeline by C#.In sum , the thesis researches the evaluation problem in failure probability of the pipeline, and has developed the Failure Probability Evaluation System of the Pipeline ,which has reference value for studying pipeline probability risk evaluation of our country.