The Study Of The Financial Crisis Situation Of Chinese List Companies And Prediction Systems

This dissertation focus on the financial crisis problems of Chinese listcompanies and involves the following topics: the definition of "financialcrisis; the development of the financial crisis predication models;Thecurrent situation of Chinese list companies, moreover, there are 4typical alcohol manufacturing companies are selected as the samplecompanies in the dissertation. Furthermore, the Z-score models ofAltman is used to reach the target conclusion.Except the preface and the conclusion, there four parts in thisdissertation. they are: the definition of financial crisis and the predictiontheory of financial crisis; the methods of financial crisis prediction andthe comment to these methods,the financial crisis situation of Chineselist companies and the demonstration analysis of Z-score model.The head part of this dissertation is literature summarize. It gives a briefintroduction of financial crisis research works from the last century 30s.it involves the definition of financial crisis, the sign of financial crisis andthe prediction of financial crisis.Firstly, it gives a definition of financial crisis. It argued that the financialcrisis refers to the entire financial crisis the company encountered in aparticular operate period; moreover, it means the company has alreadyin front of a really serious situation. It is a moment that the company willfail not the common financial difficulties. In this dissertation, deferentdefinitions of financial crisis by famous experts are listed. Basically, theprofessionals have deferent understanding of financial crisis because ofits changeable process. It is difficult to give a clear and only definition tothe financial crisis. However, it can be understood that the financialcrisis should involve the following characters : serious cash flowproblems;repayment-ability is quite wick,close to the bankrupt.According to the opinions above, the author argued that the financialcrisis companies are not absolutely the ST companies.Secondly, it introduce the financial crisis signs of companies。Financialcrisis signs refer to the changes of some key financial figures orun-financial figures. In summarized, the financial crisis signs involved asfollowing: cash flow signs, taxation and the distribution of stock profit,financial figure signs and un-financial signs.Finally, this chapter described the realistic meaning of the financial crisisprediction. It is a slow process that the companies fall into the financialcrisis, thus not only the financial crisis sign can be found also thefinancial crisis can be predicted. Predict the financial crisis correctly willbenefit to the protection of the investor and creditor, also for themanagement to the government's administrative department of the listcompany and security market.The second part of this dissertation focuses on the methods of financialcrisis prediction, and gives some comments to these methods. Thesemethods can be classified into three parts, the first one is researchingby the absolute volume of the financial statement; the second one isresearching from the relative volume of the financial statement, and thelast one is utilizing the mathematics model to do the statistical analysisand study. Currently, most the domestic and international experts arefavorite the third one.The third part has described the current financial crisis situation of theChinese list company. It regards the ST Company as the researchobject, and gives a analysis result by the diagram analysis through theindustry, achievement and capital stock three angels, moreover reach aqualitative analysis.The fourth part of this dissertation is the demonstration analysis of theZ-score model. First of all, the research object and methods areintroduced. In this dissertation, 20 ST companies and 20 un-STcompanies are selected as the study objects. Furthermore, thesecompanies are matched into 20 pair.In this dissertation, single variable analysis and multi-variables (Zscore-model) analysis are used to find the difference of the financialfigures of ST companies, also, using the both methods above to find thefinancial characters of the companies under the situation of financialcrisis. There are 4 alcohol manufactories are selected as the typicalcompanies for the demonstration analysis.In the single variable analysis of A object companies it is found that thefinancial ratio is quite match the realistic situation, and can accuratelyreflect the performance of the companies. However, in the singlevariable analysis of B object companies it is found that all the financialfigures reflect a little information, but it is difficult to find one single figurecan present the situation of the company perfectly. Those tell us that thesingle variable analysis has its own weakness.In the multi-variable (Z-score models) analysis, following conclusion canbe got:A object companies, the Z-score volumes of Chengxiang (600735) andZhangyu (000869) are less than the standard Z 2.675. on the otherhand, the Z-score volumes of and Zhangyu (000869)is bigger than thethan the standard Z 2.675. same situation is emerged in the B objectcompanies.The Z-score volumes of Fenjiu is 2.355, it belongs to the middle field ofthe Z-score model. The companies in the field, its financial situation cantransfer to good or bad two ways, it is need other analysis to get the finalpredict result.It is obviously to find that the trend of Z volume can reflect the financialperformances of the object companies.In a word, through the discussion of the above four parts, the writercomes to the conclusion for the financial crisis situation and predictionproblem as follows:The financial crisis situation is a ubiquitous fact in the operations ofdomestic and international enterprises, not only from the theoreticalresearch aspect, but only from the application aspect, it is meaningful inthe study on this phenomenon. To understand and study the financialcrisis situation, and help enterprises to prevent or solve the financialcrisis situation effectively, we should have a clearer definition to itsconcept at first, but up till now, there is still no comparatively uniformconcept of domestic and international academia, especially for thefinancial crisis enterprises, the domestic scholar's definition of STenterprises is still uppercase, although according to the concretenational conditions. It should be realized that a lot of listed company notdefined as the enterprise of ST get into the financial crisis situation too,the announcement of our country supervision for the financial crisissituation enterprises lags obviously because of various reasons, STenterprises are not all of the financial crisis situation enterprises, just themain part of them. So we should lengthen the predict period for thefinancial crisis situation of company, instead of depending on whether itis denied ST.when the companies fall into the financial crisis situation, so manyfinancial crisis signs are already emerged. Chinese list companies'...