The Evaluation Of The Investment Risk On The Primary Stage Of Venture Capital

Venture capital is an investment behavior of a kind of high income with high risk, it is important support system of industrialization for the knowledge economy and high technological achievement to the market Because the development of high technology has very high risk, to a certain extent, high technical development with the development of venture capital activity. In order to reduce the investment risk, the venture capital firm must be determining to analyze and appraise the investment risk accurately before high-tech project investment, effective management control to it after making the investment, but our country doesn't set up one intact feasible high-tech investment appraisal of risk system of project yet at present. So, its important to set up a set of systems of appraisal of risk of project investment in primary stage of risk investment which is suitable for the national conditions of our country, applied science method , appraise the investment risk of the project correctly and objectively, it is very necessary to offer the theoretical foundation for investment decision of the risk. This thesis is a project of national scientific fund for outstanding people " the design of system on the supporting environment and the operation mode of high-tech firm venture capital in our country" (70025202)Some research contents. On the basis of domestic and international relevant documents in a large amount and research and analyse a large number of investigations to the venture capital firm of our country, this text proceeds from angle of the investment institution of the risk, appraise to the investment risk on initial stage of venture capital . This text divides six chapters altogether, the main content of every chapter is as follows: Chapter one the introduction. This chapter has explained venture capital, target of investment, the research purpose of the thesis and research meaning and studies the current situation both at home and abroad, have confirmed thesis frame , main research contents , research approach and thinking of research of the thesis. Propose a thesis passes and structures the evaluation index system of the investment risk on initial stage of risk investment, except to the appraisal of one's own factor of the project , strengthen the appraisal on environmental risk , management risk , administrator's quality risk, putting forward the appraisal of different investment risk factors should follow different trade risk projects , different investment period lay particular emphasis on to some extent , consult determining the nature and ration combining together and adaptive principle of trends. Have set up a set of brand-new ones, have index system of practicability , adopt AHP and multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to carry on comprehensive appraisal to the investment risk on initial stage of venture capital , Useing most heavy to under the jurisdiction of degrees of principle, namely fuzzy appraisal maximum of result corresponding risk comment various kinds of final judgements of investment risk. Chapter two in it venture capital stage the investment risk is formed and characteristic analysis. Explain venture capital as a kind of new special investment way at first, have characteristic of the following respect, front of investment orientation,, decision risky high to expect reciprocate , rights and interests and strategic and periodicity of operation that make the investment of investment condition. Then , according to other experts' research , divide the operation course of risk investment into five stages briefly, namely capital source , project screen and think, transaction construct , is it manage and control to participate in and investment realization withdraw stage. Implement the success or failure that determined the investment project of the risk together in success at these five stages. Point out the appraisal of risk of investment at the these five stages with the most key stage, determine other success of stage, at the same time because risk investment institution and risk great information unsymmetry under enterprise, make this stage become the most difficult stage in the operation of venture capital. Then, analyze the procedure of appraisal of risk of investment on initial stage of venture capital , among them, exhaustive appraisal stage is a main part of appraisal of risk of investment on initial stage of risk investment. Finally , proceed from angle of the investment institution of the risk, in venture capital firm in Shanghai , Beijing , Shenzhen and other places going on a large number of questionnaire investigation and foundation , expert of interview, combine and count the riskanalysis content in the feasible report of the investment institution of the risk, whether draw lessons from research of forefathers , have to go to venture capital firm 6 kinds of risk factors that pay close attention to the fact mainly when carrying on risk investment. Technological risk , market risk , environmental risk , risk and risk of withdrawing , risk of management and quality of administrator. And turn various kinds of main risks into 23 seed risks thinly. Chapter three It is studied the method of appraisal of risk of investment on initial stage of the risk investment. First of all, the appraisal method is studied to determine the nature to the investment risk. Secondly, study to investment risk quantitative appraisal method, analyse technology economic ration think method and venture capital quantitative appraisal method. Then, study the characteristic of the appraisal of risk of investment on initial stage of venture capital, basic situation of the method of appraisal of risk of domestic and international risk investment at present of survey , because the appraisal of investment risk is complicate risk investment initial stage, influence factor that involve more, and factor these have some but quantization , some very difficult or impossible quantization, such as the question of appraisal of investment risk of initial stage of venture capital , involve technological risk , market risk , management risk ,etc., in these risk factors, easier quantization of the market risk, the quantization of and technological risk and management risk is very difficult . So, only adopt the strong point of drawing first two kinds of methods thinking the method better of determining the nature and combining with ration, remedy one's own deficiencies at the same time . Chapter four a design of the evaluation index system of the investment risk on initial stage of venture capital. First of all , lack the characteristic of the real and risk investment oneself of information in advance according to venture capital , in order to reflect the composition of the risk of the project appraised overall , truly , make the evaluation index system easy to operate operation, should is it determine the nature the ration combines the principle and adaptability principle to follow while establishing the system of evaluation index. Then , set up the evaluation index system of the investment risk on initial stage of risk investment, set up the grade and standard of the evaluation index of the investment risk on initial stage ofventure capital . Then, confirm the method in parameter in the evaluation index system, use level analytic approach confirm and use fuzzy comprehensive appraisal model not to is it appraise to go on to evaluation index weight true coefficient to project investment risk. Chapter five using a application case of the method of appraisal of risk of investment on initial stage of the venture capital. This selected works have selected a already successful venture capital case, is in Hi-Tech risk enterprises which newly establish one while making the investment --When reach it is digital information technology Limited Company ,about index system set up it make further explanation and the verification of. And then to technological risk , market risk , environmental risk , risk of management and quality of administrator , withdraw from risk go on in detail analysing of project this, then establish the system of index, application level analytic approach confirm weight coefficient, index of system, then utilize 1-9 graduation law give a mark by expert to every risk degree of factor, and then utilize the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to carry on comprehensive appraisal to the investment risk of the project, adopt most heavy to under the jurisdiction of degrees of principle confirm every investment risk and comprehensive appraisal conclusion of risk, namely the risk comment with corresponding maximum of the fuzzy appraisal result is various kinds of final judgements of investment risk. Whether will make the investment in this company after appraising its future benefit in the investment institution of the risk finally, but according to the investment combination principle of the risk, consider synthetically , make the choice to judge . Combine actual running situation of company this, in establishment after investing in issue of Company this venture capital firm, have made enterprise's development strategy , resource distribution and valid supervision and management to this enterprise at the back stage, make company this develop rapidly in growth stage, enterprise value increase severely, verify the decision exactness of the venture capital firm. Chapter six the conclusion and look into the distance. Summarize research results of this text, because the author has inadequate experience, the range surveyed and studied is limited, make this text study weak point , need to probe...