Dynamic Game Model And Application In Emergency Management

The great development of the modern society also brings the conflicts of population, resources, environment, sanitation and etc, which result in various incidents and disasters. Thus, Emergency Management became a key project for Chinese government and society. Firstly, the theoretical research and historical background in western countries as well as the present status in China are introduced. Secondly, the definition, feature of emergency management is brought under discussion.Based on the analysis of emergency mechanism, the thesis then discussed the necessity of dynamic management. When an incident occurs, rescuers must get into the disaster areas and material must be dispatched to the victims. As the circumstance is always changing, the strategy of manager should be adjusted according to the changes, and the demand of resources will be also changed respectively.There are commonly two or more players in emergency management. It's suitable to suppose that decision-making process is a dynamic game process between two players of"decision maker" and "emergency" itself. Basic ideas of Game Theory are presented and the possible players during the process of emergency management are enumerated in this thesis. Based on Bayesian rule, a dynamic game model is raised between"decision maker" and "emergency" to help choose optimal strategy and take actions by applying incomplete and incremental information effectively.Finally, a model on the game relationship between media and government is given as a case study in emergency management.