Study On Fire Accident Forecast Based On Catastrophe Theory

Fire is one of the most common disasters on human life,economic development and ecological environment.With the rapid development of economic construction,the frequency of fire occurrence picks up and the losses caused by fire become greater and greater.Although the state has increased the fire safety management,the situation of fire is still not optimistic and serious fires occur from time to time.The painful lessons of fire make people wake up to early master the orderliness of fire occurrence and establish the preventive measures.Also fire forecast is known as an indispensable task in fire field.Catastrophe theory is to study the sudden change occurring during the process of continuous development.The system status from safety to accident is actually a kind of catastrophe phenomena.Therefore,catastrophe theory is an applicable theory to study accident.Catastrophic characteristic decides that the forecast of accident and disaster can't use ecumenical forecasting methods and need introduce catastrophe theory to create an effective forecasting mode.This paper sets out from fire accident forecast.On the base of analysis on a variety of factors impacting fire occurrence and traditional accident theoretical models, the thesis firstly introduces catastrophe theory to fire safety science field and creates fire accident cusp catastrophe predictive model which can reflect the essential of fire occurrence.Secondly,this paper uses data fitting method of catastrophe theory application manner to analyze our country fire four target statistical data from 1997to2006. Further,this paper uses catastrophe curved surface equation or bifurcation equation of cusp catastrophe model to match and determines whether the state of statistical data occurs catastrophe or not.And the thesis chooses GM(1,1) model and residual error model of grey theory to forecast fire statistical data and analyze the precision of predicted results.Finally,this paper aims at the lack of cusp catastrophe predictive model and gray predictive model during forecasting.In order to improve the precision of predictive model,the thesis brings forward gray-cusp catastrophe predictive model which combines cusp catastrophe predictive model with gray predictive model and uses it to forecast the fire accident four target statistical data again.The results indicate the method improves the precision.This paper brings catastrophe theory into fire accident forecast to analyze the evolvement process of fire system function state and the change of fire accident development trend.It provides evidence for constituting fire accident preventive mea-sures. This thesis has definite research significance and obtains certain achievements.Thesis type:Applied Technology Research...