The Cohort Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of The Endowment Will Among Urban Elderly People In China

China is a country which has a large population. It has the largest number of elderly people as well. Expected by 2020, the amount of people aged over 60 in China will reach 240 million; accounting for the total population is 16%. In 2009 coincided with the 60th anniversary of the founding of the PRC, people born before the founding of China will become elderly people totally. The following group which will be aging is just the one who experienced the first baby boom in New China (born between 1950-1959). As the New China's first parents of one-child generation, the support for them will be a big problem to solve urgently.The study considers, it is the existing of cohort effect that makes the different in wills of elderly between "1940s Cohort" and "1950s Cohort", which is caused by the vital social change during their life span. After the investigation about endowment wills of elderly people who aged 50-69 both in Tianjin and Nanjing by using questionnaires, we can see the significant difference between two age groups in the following ways: the state of employment, whether lose a job ever, whether stay in the city all through, the number of siblings alive, the way to acquaint spouse, number of children ever, the spending oneself monthly, the spending of medicine oneself monthly, self-value of health, the degree of self-care. By using the Logistic Regression, the study sets up a model to reveal the will of elderly people which has conclusions like, "low spending in medicine group" will be more likely to live in nursing institution rather than "high spending in medicine group", "medium income group" will be more likely to live in nursing institution rather than "high income group" and so on. After the analysis of the conclusions which are quite different from former research, it proves to be true that the existing cohort effect in the endowment will of among elderly people. After the analysis of the conclusions which are quite different from former research, it proves to be true that the existing cohort effect in the endowment will of among elderly people.There are three innovations in this study. Firstly, the new methodology. It is the first time to introduce cohort effect into the analysis on the endowment will. Secondly, the study finds out the mechanism of four independent variables: the significant differences between age groups on "monthly income" and "spending on medicine monthly" work through cohort effect and age respectively. While "the number of children alive" and "the attitude towards 'Bring up their children for old age'" are both influenced by the cohort effect. Thirdly, the selection of the research object. To choose quasi-elderly people and young elderly people as sample is because they are the ones who can take care of themselves, they have room to choose where to live. At the same time, they have to consider the endowment problem since their old age. Thus it provides a more practical reference value in some extent for our policy-making about elderly people in the future.The study suggests advocating the changes of endowment of elderly people, developing community care for them; setting up medium-class and low-class institutions by the support from government, while the high-class ones by society; improving the professional service in nursing institutions; setting up the foundation for one-child family in supporting the elderly people.