A Study On Chinese Optimum Population Based On FEEEP

The population problem is the most important issue in sustainable development strategy of China. As the world's most populous country, population growth and economic development has brought tremendous pressure to the food supply, energy demand and the natural environment in China. So research on the moderate population size in a certain socio-economic background and natural conditions contribute to a correct understanding of population problem.In this paper, the author studied the moderate population size in the perspective of FEEEP. FEEEP was global development issues proposed by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The core idea of FEEEP is coordinated development in food, environment, energy, economic and population. Based on the present situation of China's population, the author discussed the status and role of population in details, and explained the linkages and differences between FEEEP and sustainable development .Then concluded that FEEEP is milestones in the processing of sustainable development of China. Therefore research on the optimum population problem in FEEEP has significant practical meanings. By fitting and predicting quantitative relationship in FEEEP system and the various elements of FEEEP, this paper built on multi-objective linear programming model which viewed economic development and control of environmental pollution as the goal, energy supply and demand, and food supply and demand as constrained. After that set up three types of scenarios, as the standard of per capita food consumption in subsistence level, a well-off level, the level of developed countries to solve the model respectively. The results is as follows: The moderate population in subsistence level of China is 901.1998 million people and the main factor restricting the population is the appropriate environmental pollution; the moderate population in well-off level is 857.8083 million people and the main constraints is the food; in developed countries the moderate population is 686.2467 million people and the main constraints is food and energy. Then compared socio-economic indicators in three scenarios and found that it is difficult to achieve the level of capital stock in developed countries of the scenario in the near future, while the per capita economic in the well-off scenarios indicators was higher than the subsistence level of scenarios. Thus, 857.8083 million people is the best of our modest size of the population in the near future.According to the results of an appropriate solution of the population, we get the following main conclusions: (1) there is a big gap between the actual population and the reality of China's population, in order to increase per capita welfare and reduce the pressure on resources and environment, China must adhere to the family planning policy in dozens of years. (2) The production function of China confirmed that the fit is still in our extensive model of economic growth, economic growth caused a rather serious problem of environmental pollution, and only the transformation of economic development mode, and vigorously develop education can be achieved in the coordinated of FEEEP and sustainable development. (3), environment, food, energy, plays an important role at different stages of socio-economic development in constraining the optimum population. So to build environment-friendly and resource-saving society is an important strategic measure which will impact of population development and socio-economic development in China.