Research On Optimum Population Size Of Liaoning Province And Related Issues

Human beings are the main body of the economic operation and social development, the population carrying capacity of the region (population capacity) and optimum population are two important factors that affect the local economic and social development. Therefore, it is of great importance to study the population carrying capacity and optimum population of a region to improve the quality of people’s life and the economic development.This paper is based on research in Liaoning province population carrying capacity and optimum population. First of all, descriptive statistical method is used to analyze the population data from 1978 to 2014. At the same time, this paper predicts the population of Liaoning province from 2015 to 2030 with linear regression model,the logistic population growth model and grey prediction model and calculates the population of Liaoning province in 2020,which will reach at 45.387 million people. By 2030 the population will reach at 46.057 million people.In the fourth chapter, land resource population carrying capacity and economical resource population carrying capacity are studied by using single factor method. This paper predicts that the population capacity that based on land resource of Liaoning province will be 63.0054 million when the level of people’s life is Food and clothing; the population capacity will be 55.1207 million when the level of people’s life is well-off; the population capacity will be 49.0042 when the level of people’s life is rich. This paper defines the population carrying capacity and the actual population as the ratio of the population carrying, then obtain the population carrying rate that mentioned above is 72.04%,82.34%,92.62%, respectively. In addition, this paper from the use of appropriate construction area respect continue to explore the land population carrying capacity in Liaoning Province, the land population capacity based on appropriate construction can reach at 130.7241 million in 2020, corresponding to the population carrying rate is 34.72%.The economical population capacity is 55.8063 million.In the fifth chapter, this paper selects 40 indicators from three aspects including the economic level, social life and the ecological resources to create the Liaoning Province moderate population index system, with method of Possibility-Satisfaction Degree, in satisfaction for 0.6, the Liaoning Province economic optimum population is 45.873 million, social life optimum population is 43.711 million and the ecological resources optimum population is 45.873 million. Then when defining the optimum population of Liaoning province as the arithmetic mean value of this three factors,the population is 44.627 million people. At the same time, the index that mostly hampers population growth under economic, life and environment is respectively local public finance income, the number of health institutions and technical personnel and urban gas supply quantity.In the sixth chapter, this paper summarizes the forecast population in 2020, the population carrying capacity, and the optimum population, by comparing the number of population forecast of Liaoning Province in 2020 and the other three indicators, by 2020, if the average standard of living of the people in 2020 has reached a rich state, Liaoning province will face the situation to buy food from other provinces.The optimum population of Liaoning province is 44.627 million, the predicted population is 45.387million, after observation, the population carrying capacity is larger than the predict population, then the predicted population is larger than the optimum population. That is to say, in the next five or six years, Liaoning Province does not exist the overloading population problem, but in order to realize the coordination and sustainable development of economy, society and environment, by 2020 should put the population control in 44.627 million people.Innovations of this paper are the following two points:Firstly,this paper has innovation of the research angle of the land population carrying capacity. In the past,research about the land population carrying capacity are mostly based on the angle of the ’land-grain-population’. However, this paper argues that the land resources not only provides human with grains to meet the basic needs of human,but also offers living space which is the foundation of happy lives of human beings.Therefore,this article studies the population carrying capacity from the appropriate construction area angle.Secondly, the analysis method of population research is also an innovation of this paper.Most of the previous studies on the population treat the population carrying capacity and optimum population as two independent issues, this paper combines them together to do the analyzing work. This method can improve the accuracy and make a more detailed knowledge of population.