An Analysis Of The Competitive Strength Of The Strong Athletics Events Of China In 2008 Olympic Games

Based on an analysis of the performances of Chinese athletes in the 23^rd to 28^th Olympic Games and the future trends of athletics,taking the best results published by IAAF in the two years before the 27th and 28th Olympic Games as original data, and using Excel 2003 as a tool for analyzing and sorting the data,a regression model is constructed to predict the first eight places in 2008 athletics events.Furthermore, considering the best results published by IAAF in 2006 and comparing the performances of Chinese athletes during the period 2003 to 2006,the competitive strength of Chinese athletes in 2008 Olympic Games is analyzed through trend analysis and exponential smoothing.The conclusions are as follows:1.Men's 110m hurdles.12.90 seconds is necessary to win the gold medal.At least 13.20 to win a medal.Liu Xiang has obviously superior ability in the competition for the gold medal.Shi Dongpeng will have to try hard to gain a medal.2.Men's 20km walk.There has been very strong competition for the first three places in this event since the 26^th Olympic Games.The trend is of a "wavy" pattern, which will remain in the 28^th.In order to win the championship,the result will have to be less than 1:19:20,and no more than 1:19:41 to get a medal.Our athletes are strong as a group in this event,but there is no top athlete in our team.So there is no guarantee to get a gold medal.3.Men's 50km walk.There will be a decline in the performance of the first place, while that of the places three to eight will remain the same level as that from the 26^th to 28^th.The time spent should be about 3:40:20 in order to win first place,and less than 3:44:00 to get a medal.As far as the present strength of our athletes is concerned,it is hopeful that we can get a medal.However,it would be a great challenge to win the gold.4.Women's hammer throw.To win the gold medal,the hammer should be thrown over 78 meters,and at least 76 meters to gain a medal.Our athletes will have to work hard for it.5.Women's 20km race walk.The time spent by the champion will be about 1:29:05.It will cost a medallist less than 1:30:00.According to their performances in recent years,our athletes are not strong enough to win the gold medal.6.Marathon Women.The time spent by the champion will be less than 2:24:25, and 2:25:42 to get a medal.Zhou Chunxiu is superior in this event and is possible to win the gold medal.