A Prediction Of Chinese Track And Field Performance In 2008 Olympic Games

In 2000 Olympic Games, China achieved an excellent performance with twenty eight gold medals; however, there is a crisis in Chinese competitive sports. Competitors have done their best in the dominant events, there is a urgent need to develop some new events to win medals. Track and Field is received more attention in the program of preparations for 2008 Olympic Games. A series of program is launched, such as: the 119 program, the Olympic GongJian and PanDeng-program, the big national team, the elite-program and the innovations in national Track and Field Games. In order to let these program work effectively, there are some questions must be solved firstly, for instance, the prediction of Chinese athletes' performance in 2008 Olympic Games, the classification of events according to reserved athletes' performance, the target of events and the effect of home advantage on Chinese athletes performance.The thesis predicates Chinese athletes' performance in 2008 Olympic Games and makes several analyses of the following: tendency of performance of national and Olympic Games, T test of performance of late four national and Olympic Games, experts' prediction, reserved force of events and the main achievement in Chinese Track and Field history. Then, a comprehensive evaluation about Chinese athletes' performance in the 2008 Olympic Games is made. At last, a further prediction is made by quantification of home advantage. Solution to the questions raised above is found and the conclusions are as follows:The prediction shows that women's performance will be better than men'sin 2008 Olympic Games. Events of Chinese Track and field are divided into three groups: The tower top events in which Chinese athletes may gain medals, including: women's 10000m, women's 20km Race walking, women's Marathon, women's 5000m, men's 110m Hurdles, women's Hammer, men's 20km Race walking. With the subjectivity of judging in 20km Race walking skills, Chinese walkers will have a bigger home advantage in the 2008 Olympic Games. The tower body events A in which Chinese athletes may place before 8th, including: men's 50km Race walking, Triple Jump, Long Jump, Marathon and Decathlon; women's 1500m, 100m Hurdles, 4* 100m Relay, Long Jump, Triple Jump, Shot Put, Discus, Javelin, Pole Vault and Heptathlon. The tower body Events B in which Chinese athletes may have the qualification for participation in 2008 Olympic Games, including: men's 100m, 200m, 1500m, Hammer, Javelin and High Jump: women's 100m, 400m, 800m, 4*400m Relay, 400m Hurdles and High Jump. The tower base Events in which Chinese athletes will have no qualification for participation in the 2008 Olympic Games, including: men's 400m, 800m, 5000m 10000m 3000m Steeplechase, 400m Hurdles, 4* 100m Relay, 4*400m Relay, Pole Vault, Shot Put and Hammer; women's 200m.The home advantages existed in Track and Field competition of Olympic Games is less than ones of all events of host countries, for the subjectivity of judging in 20 Race Walking skills, home advantages will play a key role for Chinese walkers' performance in 2008 Olympic Games.The prediction of home advantages shows that China will win three to seven medals in the 2008 Olympic Games which consists with the result of comprehensive evaluation.