The Study Of Safety Assessment Models And Application In University Campus Based On Grey System Theory

In this paper, the important significance of higher education was analyzed to the political, social economic, technological and cultural development, and the important questions of the university campus safety to the higher education reform and development was pointed. According to the problems existing in the safety management and assessment, the research project of the safety assessment and prediction based on the nonlinear in the university campus safety was proposed and studied, and the author's original idea and methods was given out. At same time, the study results were applied in the practice samples, and the prospective results were attained.The university campus safety system is a nonlinear system which consists of the man-machine-environment and the extremely complex horizons, the main accidents types are robbery and snatch, sexual abuse, poisoning, fire and traffic accidents in it. The mechanism of the accidents is different, but the factors initiating the accidents were interrelated and influence each other, the traditional and the previously function-setting evaluation methods have appear their localization. In this paper, based on the analysis to the nonlinear characteristics of the accidents system in university campus, the adaptability combining the university campus safety assessment with the nonlinear grey system theory was discussed; the mechanism and disciplinarian of the accidents in the university campus were by the numbers analyzed, and the model reflection the features of the accidents was established: under the precondition and the principles following the systematic, science, uniformity and homogeneity, quantifiable, non-causality and repellency, and sufficiently thinking over the variety of the factors affecting the safety of the university campus, the system of the safety assessment indexes were completely constructed, and the every important factor during the teaching processes was incarnated in the index system, at the same time, the original safety data table was designed and worked out; the nonlinear grey incidence safety assessment models was established based on the grey system theory, and the relative safety extent of university campus safety was judged based on incidence degree.The prediction is to use the variety of knowledge and scientific means, analysis and study the historical data, presumed and estimate the development trend and possible results of the system beforehand. The aim of the prediction is that the processing measures can be done according to the developing and changing trend. It is very important to control effectively the safety in university campus for the university staffs and colleges. The accidents prediction for the university campus is to forecast the future accidents trend based on the past or present accidents information of the system. According to the differentiating and analyzing relations between the macroscopic and microcosmic status, static and dynamic features, in this paper, the basic principals was determined for the accidents prediction in the university campus, and the mathematical models based on the nonlinear grey system theory was established. The nonlinear system grey prediction model adapt to inadequate historical data problem on the prediction.To facilitate dynamic management of university campus safety, visualization system soft of university campus safety management is developed through Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 programming design. This soft convenient man-machine conversation and simple operation, and it facilitates statistical inquiry of basic accidents data, university campus safety assessment, accidents trend prediction etc.