Study On Status Of Grain Supply And Demand And Grain Security In Binzhou City

Regarding economic theory as guidelines and regarding a large number of census data of peasants, government's grain production statistical yearbook data and a large amount of domestic and international materials as the foundation, Binzhou city of traditional national commodity grain base was studied in this text, analyzing the grain development, grain production demand current situation and future trend of Binzhou city during fifty-six years after liberation, put forward the measures to guarantee grain security and economic development of Binzhou. This research played an important role in the grain production and economic development of the future of Binzhou. It had certain enlightenment function on the grain production development of similar areas (city ) of the whole country, especially grain production, supply and demand question of the low developed area and large city of grain production. This research had certain reference value to the prediction of supply and demand situation of the whole country and making of the medium and long-term development plan.The conclusions of the present study are as follows:(1) According to the development course, the grain production course of Binzhou was divided into five phases on the whole: 1950-1978, 1979-1984, 1985-1995,1996-1999, 2000-2003. The per capita of grain was 278.8 kgs, 354.0 kgs, 654.2 kgs, 713.5kgs and 475.9kgs respectively, which indicated grain production of this agricultural city was on the rise, but reduced greatly in recent years, the problem of grain security existed too.(2) The crop yield of Binzhou will be 1,720,000,000kgs in 2005, 1,700, 000,000kgs in 2010, 1,650,000,000kgs in 2020and l,610,000,000kgs in 2030. The food demand of Binzhou will be l,560,000,000kgs in 2005, 1,720, 000,000kgs in 2010,1,920,000,000kgs in 2020,and 2,080,000,000kgs in 2030.(3) The minimum secure crop area was around 300,000~330,000 hectares.(4) The secure crop yield of Binzhou will be 1,430,000,000kgs in 2005,l,590,000,000kgs in 2010, l,780,000,000kgs in 2020,and l,930,000,000kgs in 2030.(5) According to Prediction One, the balancing point will be achieved in 2009 in Binzhou. There will be surplus grain before 2009,decreasing as the time goes on. From 2009, Binzhou will be short of grain, insufficiency goes up each year. According to Prediction Two, there will be surplus grain before 2030.(6) The proposals and measures to solve the problem of grain security are as follows: transform the middle-yielding and low-yielding fields, cultivate the wasteland, transform the salty and alkaline land, strengthen water construction, popularize super crop variety , popularize greatly mixed fertilization , popularize the substitution of straw for grain and reduce grain wastes. All these measures can increase the production of 300 million - 400 million kgs of grain and economize 100 million kilograms of grain, which has basically guaranteed the grain security.