| China is a large country with a population of over1.3billion. Successive administrations have attached great importance to food. Our country insists on the basic principle of food self-sufficiency-based and import-export regulation-supplemented for a long time. Make full use of domestic resources to increase food production becomes the basic policy of the government to solve the problem of food security. Meanwhile, with the continuous deepening of reform and opening up process, the environment for food production and international trade has changed greatly. As an important ways to protect and adjust the domestic market supply, the regulation of import and export of food has become increasingly important. Therefore, moderate import and export of food from international market can be used as a necessary complement to regulate domestic food supply and demand. Reasonable food imports help to the balance of China’s total grain output, and help to the structural balance of China’s grain, and also conducive to the stability of the domestic food prices.Firstly, this paper conducts theoretical studies reviewed, including the general theory of the food supply and demand, as well as the connotation of the food security and the effect of food import and export. Secondly, this paper investigates the food security situation since the founding of New China60years, and analyzes the development trend of China’s grain supply and demand through the construction of China’s grain supply and demand predictor model. Thirdly, according to the comparative study method, this paper analyzes the status of world grain trade market and predicts trends of the world grain trade market. On this basis, a reasonable scale of China’s grain import and export was designed and a structural system was set up accordingly. According to the conclusions of theory and the status analysis, this paper propose a "3D" safeguard strategics of food import and export-international coordination,domestic policies,and effect detection. Finally, this paper points out the deficiencies of this study. The main conclusions and perspectives are as follows:(1) Since the founding of New China60years, China’s grain supply and demand in general achieve a balance, the problem of feeding that matters to the national economy and the people’s livelihood have been resolved by Chinese people themselves. But the growing of food demand and the instability of food production make the Chinese food market either oversupply or undersupply.(2) The next ten years the total grain demand is showing steady growth. Specifically, food demand continues to decline, and feed grain demands are growing rapidly and become the most proportion of the total demand. Seeds account for a small proportion of total food demand, and maintain a steady downward trend. The grain demand of industrial use is still rapid growth-increased31.6percent in ten years, becoming the fastest growing food needs.(3) There are significant fluctuations in food supply in the next decade, and showing a significantly stepped upward trend. Inadequate food supply situation is still evident and will continue to the next period.(4) Global food production continues to increase and global food supply is guaranteed. At the same time, the correlation of China and world food production is low. It manifests the food shortages in China, and the rest of the world’s food supply is still adequate. Under the situation of sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the possibility of food embargo of the international community is low.Therefore; China can make use of adequate foreign exchange reserves to trade in the international market. The international market can solve our country’s food shortages, and it does not exist substantial barriers.(5) The basic principle of China’s food security is to make full use of domestic food production capacity, and to realize food self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, appropriate food imports can make up the shortfall of domestic production. Furthermore, We should exploit the comparative advantages to expand export trade.(6) In order to better implement the food import and export strategies to ensure domestic food security, China should strengthen the implementation of food import and export, and make some domestic policies of food import and export, and detect the effect of stratefic implementation of food import and export.At the same time, on the basis of domestic and foreign literature review,this paper strives to breakthroughs and innovations, especially in research methods. This paper also strives to achieve applicable, accurate and innovative.(1) This paper made some theory and research innovation combined with the reality of research needs. The research of this paper starts from practical needs of the enhancement of domestic food security. Based on the theoretical analysis and literature review about grain supply and demand, food import and export, and food security, and combining to the valuable experience of the improvement of food security situation, this paper explicitly puts forward that the problem of domestic food security can be solved by the international market. Import and export of food from the international market can adjust the domestic grain supply and demand.(2) This paper conducted in-depth analysis on some specific issues such as strategic of food import and export on the basis of domestic food security, and then summarizes some new phenomenon, and put forward some new ideas. After analyzing the relations on food security and food import and export, and combining the successful experience, this paper points out the necessity and to resolve food security problem by international market. This paper proposed scale design and structure design of China’s grain import and export during the period of2010-2020, and pointed out the direction to the development of food import and export for the next decade.(3) The application of some mathematical methods results in a successful analysis of China’s grain supply and demand comparison and trend. In this paper, the combination forecasting model predicts the grain supply quantity. Combination forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy than a single prediction model. This model can enhance the stability of the forecast, and it has a higher ability to adapt future environmental change. Meanwhile, SVM was introduced into the predictive of future food production, and a predictive value was acquired by establishing a prediction model based on SVM. We also found that application of the methods to solve the food production forecast is very effective. |
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