Analysis And Countermeasure Research On Supply And Demand Of Real Estate In Guiyang City Based On Grey Prediction Model

The real estate industry has always played the role of a pillar industry in the development of China for nearly two decades,and is an important industry to enhance the national economy and improve people's living standards.With the rapid development of China's overall economy,the real estate industry is also developing rapidly under this opportunity.As one of the central cities in the southwest,Guiyang City has also exposed many problems while the real estate industry is developing rapidly.Among them,house prices are the core issue.Atpresent,the housing prices that do not match the per capital disposable income of China and Guiyang City have caused the peoplecannot afford housing.The main reasons for the excessive housing prices are the imbalance between supply and demand,the distortion of housing properties,and the unreasonable structure of rent and sale.The main reason for the imbalance between supply and demand.Atpresent,we must pay attention to the outstanding problems of real estate and promote the high-qualitydevelopment of realestate,so as to meet the needs of economic and social development and meet the needs of the real estate industry to adapt to new changes.In this regard,in 2015,President Xi Jinping proposed a supply-side structural reform,which pointed out the road to the development of China's real estate market.Based on the above background,based on the research status of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper first expounds the supply and demand theory of real estate market,and explains the respective characteristics and reaction degree of real estate supply and demand.Secondly,it analyses the theoretical factors affecting the supply and demand of real estate,and through the query of Guiyang Statistical Yearbook,using data to analyze the specific impact of these factors on the supply and demand ofGuiyang.Then combined with the structural reform of real estate supply side and the national macro-control of “three to one,one reduction and one supplement”,the status quo and trend of supply and demand development in Guiyang in 2009-2017 were analysed.I understand that there are so many real estate supply,such as lack of demand,large inventory and unbalanced regional development in Guiyang.On this basis,the gray GM(1,1)model is used to predict the supply and demand situation of Guiyang real estate market in the next few years.The forecast results show that the imbalance between supply and demand in Guiyang real estate market will continue to exist.Finally,in order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in Guiyang real estate market,and guide real estate to take the road of high quality development,some suggestions are put forward for the problems existing in Guiyang real estate market.Guiyang real estate market supply and demand analysis has more qualitative research.This paper combines the supply side structural reform and introduces the grey forecasting model into Guiyang real estate market supply and demand analysis.Through the collection of historical data,the prediction model is established,and the validity of the model is verified.The short-term forecast of the supply and demand relationship of real estate in Guiyang is realized,which is a perfection and supplement to the theoretical research of Guiyang real estate market.