Researching Into The Early Warning System Of Financial Crisis Of Chinese Listed Company Based On Account Due

The startling " Enron event " happened in U.S.A. recently and the appearing repeatedly of the false account questions and the deceptive behaviors of world-famous big companies, such as WorldCom corp., Xerox, etc. has caused investors' worry, the stock market of New York drops by a wide margin. In our country, also appeared cases of false account of Joanmingyuan corp., Dawn Stocks Trading Co., Yingguangxian corp., etc. too, cause the enormous economic losses to investor. Income or profit state that these big company financial reports reflect is hard to distinguish between the true and false, investors have lost the important standard for judgement, so generally distrust the companies, enormous market demand exists in the early warning information of the financial crisis. But caused by the accountant faking, the validity of those early warning systems for financial crisis, which structured according to traditional financial index, reduced greatly. This realistic background drives us to study the financial early warning problems of crisis of listed companies from a new visual angle. This paper carries on the discussion on the financial crisis and theoretical question of prewarning firstly, then combined relevant knowledge background and the reality that listed companies of chinese carried on related transaction habitually taking advantage of "account receivable" and "other account due", define a comprehensive concept named as "account due" to reflect the characteristic of account receivable and other account due. And by three groups of indexes structured to reflect main characteristics comprehensively of account due: the scale of the account due, the turnover rate of account due and the increase rate of account due, carry on the positive research to dependence of account due and financial crisis. Drew the following three conclusions: (1) the Scale of account due correlated positively with financial crisis. That means the bigger scale of account due, the greater possibility of the financial crisis takes place to enterprises; (2) The turnover rate of the account due is shouldered relevantly with financial crisis. That means the higher turnover rate of account due is, the smaller possibility of the financial crisis takes place to enterprises; (3) The increase rate of the account due has nothing to do with the financial crisis. That means the evidence does not show increase rate of the account due and financial crisis neither positive correlation nor shoulders relevantly. According to the research conclusion mentioned above, we structured the early warning model of financial crisis from visual angle of the account due, and took all the new ST Companies in 2002 and 2003 and the sample of class A companies in 2003 of Shanghai stock markets and Shenzhen stock markets, to measure the validity of early warning model by comparatively sufficient verification which use those materials of one year and two years before basic term. The inspection result is satisfied. Meanwhile, we find that, after studying the basic materials of the sample company, the main reason result in a small number of wrong predicting is the diversity of the account due, but not the scale of the assets or the main business income. The inspection result and find have proved the meaning of theory and realistic, of studying to the early warning problem of financial crisis from the visual angle of the account due further.