The Selection Of Early Warning Model Of Currency Crises And The Application In China

Since 1960s, Insisting several century's fixed rate of exchange systems obviously were getting more and more frail under economic globalization's impact. To the 70s along with US gold reserve massive outflows the America first gave up the fixed rate of exchange system and allowed the foreign exchange market floating, but other countries were also persevering fixed rate of exchange , along with Briton woods system's collapsing, that kind by currency in short-term time the large scale depreciation for the characteristic money crisis was the frequent occurrence, and also more severity ,then evolved the harm to be stronger and the destructive power destroy to economic. To occur in the 80s the Latin America country's debt crisis evolved the currency crisis finally, to 20 century's ends in 1997 occurred firstly in Thailand's currency crisis spread finally in less than one year to the entire Southeast Asia's majority of countries and formed the entire Southeast Asia's financial crisis finally. Currency crisis's occurrence except to give the Southeast Asian country the huge economy destroyed, but also gave world other countries the economic development to bring the very tremendous influence. But to 1999, Southeast Asia's financial crisis has affected Eastern Europe's Russia and so on several countries. When the world economics have not restored from the labor pain, in 2001 erupted the South America country currency crisis. Brazil Argentina, Uruguay and so on has had the currency crisis, also gives the world economics the development to bring difficultly already the wound which cancels the currency crisis the intense impact which brings to world economics' development. Simultaneously China is developing the economic with the high speed, To Regard the such big huge economy country if it happens the currency crisis, then it's destroy power will be huge. Therefore the research currency crisis's generating process and guards against obviously currency crisis's occurrence being important. This article's goal is to establish early warning system to the currency crisis theory research results, and is forewarns the system practical with China's money crisis. The article in first part proposed the currency crisis studies the significance, gave currency crisis's definition, the second part introduced the currency crisis theory's development from first generation of currency crisis theory to the third generation currency crisis theoretical model. The third part introduced internationally the research currency crisis early warning model knows nowadays, simultaneously analyzed these models flaw simply. The article fourth part first summarized the important variable which in the third chapter of model uses, simultaneously collected these country sample which has happened currency crisis, had the reflection macroscopic overall sample, and also had the reflection credit capacity sample. Then this article establishes one new money crisis to forewarn the currency crisis model, uses the linear regression model will have already currency crisis's national material to lead in the model, obtains the model the parameter. Then we analyze the reason why cause this result. The article fifth part is the model in our country's application, leads the model through our country near four year data the computed result, analyze our country reason which could not happen currency crisis. Simultaneously bring to with our country in the financial development to avoid some aspects which had the currency crisis to pay attention, take some measures to decrease the possibility in our country to happen currency crisis.