Research On Implicit Pension Debt Actuarial Model Of China And Its Control Of Risk

Endowment insurance actuarial theory is an important component of actuarial theory. It mainly studies the contribution and the balance of endowment insurance. In our country, the deficit risk of the pension fund gradually showed up along with the high economical growth and the increasingly grievous aged population. Many factors influence the pension fund, for example: the personal and the social pooling contribution rate, the pension replace rate, the age of initial employed , the age of retired, the pension adjusted exponent, the terminal life, the mortality and the investment interest etc.According to the newest basic pension policy of our country and the basic pension actuarial balance theories and on the basis of the former scholars this thesis developes the actuarial model of 'middle-person' transitional pension, basic implicit pension debt and 'old-person' implicit pension debt (IPD), then uses those models and refers to the newest population structure of pension plan calculates the data of debt and gap under the different assumptions, and then uses the data to further analyze the quality of debt and gap scale.At last, this thesis applies principal component analysis method of statistics and the SPSS software to analyze the factors which influence the IPD and the pension fund gap. Synthetizing those factors it gets four principal components which influence the fund scale as follows: the first principal component mainly integrates the wage increasing rate and the terminal age and it indicates that the social development factor is the most important factor which influences the gap scale;the second one integrates the pension replace rate and pension adjusted exponent etc, it indicates that the policy factor is the second main factor;the retired age and investment interest integrates the third and the fourth main principal component respectively. Then in the different periods, those factors can be analyzed and weighted, and then the principal components which influence the gap can be found. The pension fund scale could be dynamic controlled by adjusting the main factors scale.