Analysis Of Composition, Forecasting And Influencing Factors On Implicit Pension Debt

China reformed its social pension system from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system in1997.The new insurance system is combined by social pension and personal pension.The pensions paid based on the amount of the individual account after the workers retired. The workers who participated in the insurance before1997don’t have personal accounts. But the government has promised that they can get pensions after they retired as usual. It formed government’s liabilities, as we called implicit pension debt (IPD).Implicit pension debt affects the development of China’s pension system and it must be properly resolved. The precondition of solving the IPD is to calculate the IPD properly. This article calculated the number of implicit pension debt in recent ten years, and analyzed the composition of the implicit debt. According to the survey results, we can analyze the factors influence on the IPD and predict the scale of implicit debt in the next few years.This article consists of four chapters. The first chapter is an introduction. It explained how the implicit debt generated and introduced its research background. In the second chapter, we established calculation models. The creditors of IPD are divided into "the old","the retired middle","the at-work middle" according to the regulation published1997. Combined with insurance knowledge we learned, We built calculation models for each of three categories. The scale of IPD is the sum of three kinds of implicit debt scale. Base on the data we pick up form statistical year books, we can estimate the numbers of implicit debt each year from2000to2010through MATLAB software in the third chapter. According to the survey results, we can analyze the composition of IPD and the changes of IPD scale in next few years. Then we make sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting IPD. In the last chapter, according to the calculation results and the analysis of the factors, combined with foreign experiences in coping with aging population, we put forward some suggestions to reduce the implicit pension debt scale. This article is different from other scholars’ papers which only calculate single year’s implicit debt scale. This article measures the scale of implicit debt more than ten years. It also predicts the scale of implicit debt in the next few years and analyses changes of main repayment object. In the end, it analyses the impact factors of social endowment insurance fund.