Studys On Cost Risk Analysis And Prevence Control Of Construction Project

The construction is a traditional industry, which has quiet great progress in China. But, according to some investigations on cost management of construction projects, there are at large and even very severity cost overrun risks , which are general estimates over rough estimates, budgetary estimates over general estimates and final accounts over budget. Because of the limited financial resources, it has blocked the development of the industry and the correlation ones. One of the most important reasons is that the cost managements of projects absence efficiency technology of risk management. Now in our country, there is only "contingency", which is calculated in proportion and aims at that. It is not reasonable that just relying a certain number calculates in advance the risk, which would exist along the projects. This is also one of the most crucial reasons that the cost is lost control of during the process of projects. So supplying a simple and convenient method of risk evaluation is propitious to keep a lookout and manage risk, which the projects managers can control the whole risk scales on the basis of the capital and the economic burden.Construction project has the characteristic of a long period of time, one-off, complexity and so on, which is existing risk ultimately. It faces all kinds of risk, which will make the cost changed. For taking the reins of project cost risk in advance and offering references of project risk management, the dissertation brings forward relatively integrate method of construction project cost risk. This paper first summarizes the project cost structure and its risk characteristics according to questionnaires, then analyzes its reasons and research indirection in future, which gives the bases of risk quantity models. Second, the paper make use of the basic theory of risk management and sets up dynamic statistical parameter analytical model, which calculates the performing contingency according to counting β-distributing agonic estimates, by the system viewpoint and basing the project cost accounting system. The approach is applied to a practical case study, which is viewed via Excel and allows the user to actually see how the analysis is done, and is proved that it is maneuverability and feasibility. At last gives some countermeasure and advice aiming at preventing construction project cost risk.The project cost risk management is a complex system problem. This paper aims to provide a framework to identify assess and control the construction project cost risk. So the paper may supply useful consult for decision-maker who can make the decision more reasonable and scientific.