The Gravity Model Of China's Foreign Trade And The Choice Of Export Location

Since reform and opening-up, China's economy has being grown at a high speed for a long time, and the high growth of foreign trade is an important reason. Therefore, with economic scale expanding constantly, the economic growth rate easing up, and RMB appreciating, studying the decisive factor influences China's foreign trade and putting forward the policy recommendations of expanding foreign trade have important realistic significances. This text divides four major parts altogether.The first part, the trade gravity model and its application. It mainly introduced elementary theory of the trade gravity model, the challenge of trade gravity model development facing and trade gravity model's application. And it proposes research steps of this article in the above research foundation: we selects correlation data of our country with 151 main trade partners composing panel data in 1992-2003, carries on the test to the gravity model of China's foreign trade, and analyses the choice of export location, in the hope of getting more accurate conclusion, and offering scientific basis for the formulation of our country's foreign trade policies;The second part, the establishment and test of gravity model about China's foreign trade. The text sets up the gravity model which studies China's foreign trade in seven regions and examines the actual conditions of China's foreign trade flow with panel data. Analyzing and finding as follows: the remarkable factors impacting on volume of China's export are the GDP sum of China and trading partner in each area, the effects of the population sum of China and trading partner, absolute value of per capita GDP between China and trading partner, the distance between China and the trading partner and the area of China's trading partner are different in each area;The third part, the text uses the gravity coefficient of foreign trade and simulation method of the trade gravity model got in test to analyze the position choice of China's foreign trade and divides 151 trading partners of China into pieces of grade;Finally, considering the above-mentioned test and analysis, the text draws the basic conclusion and policy meaning.