The Research On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Public Companies

The financial crisis is a world question. Since the sixties, the researchers of a lot of countries of U.S.A. and Europe have already begun to carry on financial crisis early warning research. Domestic research has just started, and the great majority researches are that the qualitative analysis is heavy in quantitative analysis. The research purpose of this paper is that to set up a set of science appraises the system of the financial situation of listed companies, and promulgate to the department supervising with wide investment person, which listed companies have went into the warming districts of financial crisis, in other words investor should vigilance high to endanger trap district.The main contents of studying in this paper have two. One is to adjust the financial ratios affected by the profit to control, to decrease the effect of asymmetry of accounting information to setting up model, thereby establish one suit of effectual dynamic financial crisis warming model, moreover can be based on the establishing financial crisis warning system, utilize the now available openly data, and forecast the companies that will turn up financial crisis in next year, and supply the foundation for invest decision of investors. Other is that this research establish the financial crisis early warning model by adopting principal component analysis (PCA)? and test the forecasting capability of this model.This paper divides five parts altogether. The first part introduced the research background and the research significance of the financial crisis-warning model of listed company, and study the current situation both at home and abroad, and point out the place of innovation of studying in this paper. The second part explained mainly how the financial crisis was defined, and analyzed that causes the factor of the financial crisis. The third part explained the profit-handled behavior of listed company to the influence of setting up financial crisis warning model. The fourth and fifth parts used empirical research to respectively set up the financial crisis-warning model of listed companies. The result of empirical research shows: (1) Consider the Profit-handled influence, the forecast capability that set up models after adjusting the financial targets is better that the model of the establish to not consider profit-handled influence; (2) PCA method is used to set up the early-warning model. Two models are set up based on financial ratios before modified and financial ratios after modified. Through the empirical research, the result shows that the model has a better prediction capability.