| Economic system is a very complex system, so it is very difficult to study this field. In this article, at first I generalize some theoretical knowledge about economic system, and then generalize some economic forecasting and controlling methods. These are theoretical part. In the demonstration part, I analyze and forecast the economic trends on the base of regional economic and the data of HuBei province.In the paper, I try to construct an economic cutoff system, and then do some economic models. Using these models, I can forecast a series of index values before 2010, and then evaluate the economic development of HuBei province.This article is distributed into six chapters. Chapter 1: the summary about economic system and the summary about regional economics, in this part I show some concept, researching content and some typical researching methods about economic system, in the same time I expound the compose, the structure analysis and the content to forecast about regional economics; Chapter 2: the summary about the methods of economic forecasting, in this part, I introduce some forecasting methods which I will use in the article. Chapter 3: the venture and control of economic system, here I introduce some basic knowledge of economic control theory and how to control economic development by the models. Chapter 4: system modeling, in this part after partitioned some subsystems, I finish some quantitative models. Chapter 5: the forecasting and evaluation of economic development of Hubei province. In this chapter, using the models on the grounds of the foregoing, I forecast a series of economic data in the coming years, and I make much evaluation on those. Chapter 6: the comparison among several possible plans in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. In this part make a comparison among three possible occasions, which are 9%, 10% and 8% three different economic growth rate. In the tag, I present some aspects which I haven't study because of time reason. |
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