| It is pointed out that in the 16th Party Congress and the Third Plenum of the 16th CPC Central Committee that it is time to develop and enhance county area economy and research and establishment of county economy development is unprecedented emphasized. Conducting county planning study and overall economic analysis is an important measure to implement the scientific development concept and promote sustainable economic development. Today with our country's rapid economic development,whether in terms of population and geographical size owned by the county or the sectoral composition of the national economy or the demand for consumption and investment, county economic development have become increasingly prominent position, speeding up the development of the county economy has become increasingly important. Meanwhile,the county's economic development is also an inherent requirement of building a new socialist countryside.Based on the analysis of domestic and international application of relevant theory and modeling technology ,analysis of the specific stage of the development of the county economy in the economic planning model theory convict that county economy as an integrated economic system needs detailed analysis of the industrial structure. This paper analyzes the evolution of the basic elements of the structure and explores the basis for the industrial method of concrete improvements. With the evaluation of domestic and foreign economy development this paper deals with the development level of county economy and present the theory of the county's economic development cycle.The paper contains 7 chapters. Chapter 1 explains the significance of county economy research to the economic development, and gives the research method and objective; Chapter 2 summarize the current research and theory; Chapter 3 analyzes the characteristic of county economy, the development mode, evolution mechanism, and present the lifecycle and evolvement mechanism of industry from sustainable development viewpoint; According to county economy development, Chapter 4 firstly introduces the evaluation method, then particularly analyzes the element of evolvement, discusses the industrial structures analysis method, finally according to baud diamond theory, present the methods of choosing leading industry in county economy; According to 5 methods of GDP forecast and clustering analysis, Chapter 5 constructs the forecast system of county economy development; Chapter 6 bases on the theory above, analyzes and forecasts the development of economy in Gao Mi, Shan Dong province, according to the lifecycle and evolvement mechanism of industry, particularly analyzes the industry structure, development stage, existing issue, industry restructure, leading industry choice and so on, finally presents the advice for the development of economy in Gao Mi. Chapter 7 makes a summary and brings forward the issues which need more research.Country economy research is a new domain currently, the innovation in the paper is: make a summary for current research, utilizes the theories of industry, and analyzes the evolvement and development mechanism; present the lifecycle of county economy and development stage from sustainable development viewpoint; construct forecast system. In addition, the paper analyzes the county economy development in Gao Mi, gives advice for policy.This paper discusses the developing model of county economy analyses the wide used industrial cluster theory and analyses the cluster evolution of county econom, and clearly points out the county's economic transition process of growth industry clusters.County economic forecast economic system involves many factors, the paper predicts five polymerization methods to forecast and optimize the processes and the results. |
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